Format for what is covered in this Monthly Portfolio Update:

• Market Thoughts

• Indices Review

• Key Indicators

• SixSigmaCapital Performance: YTD and since Inception

• Featured Quote

• Current Positions in size order

• Closing Thoughts

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Market thoughts:

Equity markets had a volatile month in July, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite posting month-over-month returns of +0.18%, -0.09%, and -2.89%, respectively.

For the last several months, I have been saying in this letter:

My perspective remains that there is plenty to be concerned about regarding the US economy and equity markets over the medium term” &

“Historically, there tends to be a large drawdown in the S&P 500 within the 12 months preceding election day. I do not know whether it will be Fed-related, a policy shock by the White House, or an economic downturn that triggers the drawdown (or something else entirely), but I think it is very likely we will see one given the way markets are behaving”

Despite climbing a wall of worry for most of the past year, the broader indices finally fractured in March. The S&P 500 pulled back more than 9% peak-to-trough, and the Nasdaq fell 13%. However, since April, there had been a historic rebound. From the March 30 lows through the end of May, the S&P 500 gained more than 1,300 points (over 15%), while the Nasdaq Composite surged 6,300 points from its bottom (an advance of more than 30%). Semiconductors and every layer of the tech supply chain have enjoyed an unprecedented run, with the SOXX ETF peaking in mid-June at >110% above its March lows, leaving the sector at its most overbought level on record.

June was an interesting month that brought notable market rotation. Both indexes ended the month slightly off their highs, though it may not have felt that way given the continued strength in semiconductors. However, the Mag 7 actually had one of its worst months on record, and technology as a group was down month-over-month. Meanwhile, healthcare, financials, real estate, and consumer defensives all had strong months. See the image below:

July brought with it continued rotation, and the severely overbought AI infrastructure and semiconductor trade cooled off dramatically, whilst hyper-scalers, energy, financials, and, frankly, most other sectors showed some strength. See sector map below:

The last week of the month was dynamic to say the least. Most relevantly, we had mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, as well as reports from leading AI and memory companies like Vertiv, Seagate, KLA, Teradyne, Samsung, and SK Hynix.

Regarding Mega-Cap earnings, Microsoft and Amazon especially impressed with strong cloud numbers. Microsoft’s capex forecasts were in line with expectations, while Amazon’s were slightly higher. Wall Street seemed convinced of the return on invested capital (ROIC) for this spend, sending both stocks up double digits. Meta sold off post-print despite strong revenue, weighed down by worsening margins and higher capital expenditure. Meanwhile, SK Hynix missed consensus estimates despite reporting rock-solid fundamentals. Samsung posted strong numbers and noted on its call that supply constraints will worsen in 2027 compared to 2026, with shortages likely persisting through 2028. Visibility beyond 2029 remains limited.

The Fed held interest rates steady at the FOMC meeting. However, long-dated US Treasury bond yields surged sharply soon after. The benchmark 30-year Treasury yield spiked above 5.24%, marking its highest level since 2007. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield broke out to 4.745%. This reaction triggered a drastic “twist steepener” in the yield curve, as short-term yields drifted lower while long-term borrowing costs soared. While equities initially held up during the press conference, they fell sharply into the close.

Lingering in the background was the dramatic liquidation of Situational Awareness LP (SALP). The Financial Times reported that Goldman Sachs met with SALP on July 24th to discuss an orderly liquidation. News then broke that SALP had written to limited partners asking for additional capital following a sharp decline, with estimates suggesting the fund was down over 50% month-to-date. Other firms likely caught wind of this and pressed their short positions, making the liquidation visible in the tape. This culminated in Citadel acquiring SALP’s stock portfolio, which triggered a 20% to 35% rally in those same holdings the following day. Fitting end to a wild month in the Stock Market!

Last month I had written that:

The aftermath war in the Middle East will likely serve as further headwinds in the coming months. If we look at oil specifically, I backtested what happens to equity markets when crude remains consistently above $100; I found that stocks can remain robust for around 20 days, but after that, they tend to suffer. This is something to pay attention to as we head into the rest of summer, though crude is currently at $90 after pulling back.

Since the fragile June ceasefire almost entirely collapsed over the last fortnight, tit-for-tat military strikes have resumed with no quick resolution in sight. As a result, we have continued to see crude prices rise sharply, climbing from $66 at the beginning of July into the mid-80s as of Friday’s close. There have been talks by Trump over the weekend about cancelling the strikes and working on a deal with Iran. If so, then we could see crude drop.

While we experienced a decent correction in March, it remains to be seen whether that was the main midterm election-year pullback or if another is due later in the year. S&P 500 earnings estimates continue to be revised upward, with most companies beating expectations and raising guidance. Although this fundamental strength argues against a deep, index-level decline, the market did just finish the month with a -5% pullback in the SPX and an 11% peak-to-trough drop in the Qs. Should a further meaningful pullback materialise, I will certainly be looking to buy select equities.

Inflation:

CPI: The June 2026 CPI data is presented below:

• Headline CPI increased 3.5% YOY vs expectations of 3.8% YOY.

  • Headline CPI decreased 0.4% MOM vs expectations of a 0.2% decrease MOM

• Core CPI increased 2.6% YOY vs expectations of 2.8%–2.9% YOY.

  • Core CPI was unchanged (0.0%) MOM vs expectations of a 0.2% MOM

PPI: The June 2026 PPI (final demand) data is presented below:

• Headline PPI increased 5.5% Y/Y vs expectations of 6.2% Y/Y

  • Headline PPI decreased 0.3% M/M vs expectations of 0.0% M/M

• Core PPI increased 4.7% Y/Y vs expectations of 5.2% Y/Y

  • Core PPI increased 0.2% MOM vs expectations of 0.4% M/M

Below I have included charts showing the trend for both CPI and PPI:

PCE: With regards to the PCE price (Fed’s preferred metric), June ‘26 data came in slightly cooler than expected.

• Headline PCE increased 3.7% YOY vs expectations of 3.8% YOY.

  • Headline PCE decreased 0.1% MOM vs expectations of 0.0% MOM.

• Core PCE increased 3.3% YOY vs expectations of 3.4% YOY.

  • Core PCE increased 0.1% MOM vs expectations of 0.2% MOM.

Whilst Core PCE came in lighter than expectations, Core PCE has proven notably sticky throughout the last year.

July FOMC Meeting:

At the most recent FOMC meeting on July 28–29, 2026, the FOMC decided to hold interest rates steady as they navigate persistent inflation risks alongside signs of economic expansion. The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Unlike the unanimous decision in June, this decision was divided with a 9–3 vote, marking notable hawkish dissent in Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed Chair. Three regional Fed bank presidents—Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan—dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Chair Warsh maintained a concise policy statement devoid of explicit forward guidance, reiterating in his press conference that the committee remains strictly data-dependent and advising markets to “play the ball, not the referee”.

The Committee reaffirmed its firm stance, stating unequivocally: “The Committee will deliver price stability”. While headline inflation cooled slightly in June due to a temporary pullback in petrol prices, price pressures remain elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly compounded by Middle East conflict risks, tariffs, and AI-related infrastructure demand. Meanwhile, productivity and capital investment remain strong, job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

While no updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was issued at this non-quarterly meeting, the divided vote underscored that an interest rate hike remains a live possibility for future meetings. Markets continue to weigh the likelihood of further tightening heading into the next decision on September 15–16.

Indices:

S&P 500

• Currently trades at 7,489.72 (9.2% YTD)

• It is 0.24% above the 50SMA.

• Trading at 25.19x trailing earnings and 21.01x forward earnings

Nasdaq Composite:

• Currently trades at 25,373.85 (9.2% YTD)

• It is 2.21% below the 50SMA.

• Trading at 32.61x trailing earnings and 24.79x forward earnings (per WSJ for the QQQ)

Key Indicators:

• 10 Year T-Note: 4.745. It has increased by 13.33% YTD

• British Pound vs USD: 1.348 and is up 0.21% YTD.

• CPC (Put to Call Ratio): 0.91. Note >1 can indicate Fear and >1.5 can be Extreme.

• VIX: 15.99. I have included a chart below showing the VIX over time and Nasdaq Comp underneath it: you can see that extreme readings have always been a buying opportunity in the medium term.

• NAAIM Exposure Index: 84.02 from 84.69 last month. Note it did get into the low 30’s in April 2025 (!)

• S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: 62.4% (<10 tend to be great buying opportunities)

• Fear and Greed Index (CNN): currently reads 42 which is in the ‘Fear’ zone. At the end of March it was 19 supposedly in the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone.

Consolidated Performance across Investment Account: YTD and since Inception of SixSigmaCapital (Equities only as of Sunday 2nd August)

2023: +94%

2024: +61%

2025: +57%

2026: +14.5% (with trading account gains it would be +21.2%)

TWR since Inception of SixSigmaCapital is thus +461.48% or just over a 5.6x of the portfolio. The CAGR is 61.79%

TWR +455.94% vs S&P 94.90%.

TWR of S&P 500 in the same period is +105% or a 2.05x return.

SixSigmaCapital has achieved a +356.48% outperformance in that time period. (My overall 8 year CAGR including numbers prior to SSC sits at around low 40%)

I remain pleased overall, as risk adjusted these results are very sound. Furthermore, all moves were disclosed in real time.

Equity curve since switching to my current brokerage in the last few years is below:

SixSigmaCapital Trading Account:

At the start of the year, I opened a dedicated trading account for active strategies. It was initially approximately 10% the size of my primary investment account, though has grown somewhat since then (now around 16% the size of the main book). The account is managed with a trading mindset and consists mostly of common shares, though I have utilised select options strategies.

The past month was not a strong one for the account, as it underwent a decent drawdown, pulling back from +85% to +67%. The areas to work on were to take fewer trades in a poor environment and to size them smaller, given many of my normal-sized ones got stopped. However, the positive was that I proactively maintained a high cash position throughout the month and thus did not give back an excess amount of performance.

Trading Account YTD: +67% YTD

If combined to the investment account, it would add 6.7% to the total performance.

Featured Quote:

“If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring” George Soros

Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (Investment Account) as of August 2nd 2026

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Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings

• Charts

• Current Portfolio Holdings:

  • Sizing | Cost Basis | Timeframe | Planned Moves

• Closing Thoughts (Scroll here for my full Market Commentary)

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Subscribe now

Indices

Dow Jones declined 0.1% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 0.25% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.69% in the last week

IWM declined 1.13% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, August 3

• S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (July) – 9:45 AM ET

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) – 10:00 AM ET

• Construction Spending (June) – 10:00 AM ET

Tuesday, August 4

• U.S. Trade Balance (June) – 8:30 AM ET

• JOLTS Job Openings (June) – 10:00 AM ET

• Factory Orders (June) – 10:00 AM ET

Wednesday, August 5

• ADP National Employment Report (July) – 8:15 AM ET

• S&P Global Final Services PMI (July) – 9:45 AM ET

• ISM Services PMI (July) – 10:00 AM ET

Thursday, August 6

• Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM ET

• Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Preliminary) – 8:30 AM ET

• Wholesale Inventories (June) – 10:00 AM ET

• Fed Speeches: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks (5:30 PM ET).

Friday, August 7

• U.S. Non-farm Payrolls & Employment Report (July) – 8:30 AM ET

• Fed Speeches: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks (10:00 AM ET).

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,489.72, 0.24% above the 50SMA and 6.63% above the 200SMA.

RSI 52.77

9.2% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The S&P 500 closed the week above the 50 day moving average for the first time in three weeks. That is constructive.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 25,373.85, 2.21% below the 50SMA and 5.73% above the 200SMA.

RSI 47.92

9.2% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The Nasdaq Composite closed below its 50-day moving average for the fifth time in six weeks. While it did break below the 25,000-point horizontal support during the week, it closed above that level.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $63,014.63, 0.57% below the 50SMA and 11.62% below the 200SMA.

RSI 45.06

-28.9% YTD.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was subsequently firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average (See arrow) and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act although no further progress has been made.

As of Saturday, August 1st at 12:47 BST, BTC is trading at 63,014.63. From a technical perspective, it is below all key moving averages now and the 5/21 EMA has crossed to the downside. Bulls will want to see a moving average reclaim, and eventually a hold of the 200 SMA, in the coming weeks, given it has served as strong resistance.

EEM

Currently trades at $64.09, 3.51% below the 50SMA and 7.05% above the 200SMA

RSI 47.27

+14.55% YTD

EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD the gap has narrowed to around 530bps

For the second week, EEM closed comfortably below the 50-day moving average, though it did close above the descending 21-day EMA. It came close to retesting the 200-day on Wednesday, from which it has rebounded well.

Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the ETF, it may be due for a period of chop as those stocks have started to trade quite wide and loose due to shifting sentiments related to memory stocks.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4,042.00, 3.74% below the 50SMA and 9.85% below the 200SMA

RSI 45.13

-6.49% YTD

In early June, Gold lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023 which is notable and it has not been able to come close to reclaiming it.

The 21-day moving average has persistently been a resistance point for Gold. While it was reclaimed in the middle of the week, Gold did once again close below it to close out the week. It was essentially flat on the week however,

While it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200-day at 4,478 (see arrow). I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.

SOXX

Currently trades at $504.89, 11.04% below the 50SMA and 25.43% above the 200SMA

RSI 42.66

61.13% YTD

On July 6th, SOXX printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, signaling a near-term momentum shift, and has been trending downward since.

SOXX traded lower this week, closing below the 50-day SMA, and continues to be rejected at the overhead 21-day EMA (see arrows). Bulls would like to see the horizontal support at $490 hold, followed by a reclamation of the overhead moving averages. One positive is that while the $490 horizontal level was breached during the week, it was reclaimed by Friday's close.

MU

Currently trades at $823.03 14.69% below the 50SMA and 58.91% above the 200SMA

RSI 47.14

161.08% YTD

Recently on MU I had written:

“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”

MU traded down this week and closed below its 50-day moving average for the third consecutive week. Micron again found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 21-day moving average and a decisive weekly close back above the 50-day.

Likewise, SNDK, another leading memory winner this year, has started to find resistance at the overhead 50 SMA.

LLY (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $1148.84, 0.13% above the 50SMA and 12.33% above the 200SMA

RSI 45.89

6.7% YTD

Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest mega-caps in the market.

From a technical perspective, the stock failed to break out this week (see arrows). As I wrote last week, 'The 1240 level above could be a near-term resistance point’. The stock also broke below the 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA during the week, but closed just above the 50-day SMA. Given they have earnings this week could be prudent to trim some ahead of the print.

AMZN (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $271.58, 10.12% above the 50SMA and 15.56% above the 200SMA

RSI 67.88

19.9% YTD

Amazon stock has been mostly range-bound for the last year. However, after a strong earnings print on July 30th, the stock is rallying and is within a couple of percent of its all-time high. Bulls will want to see a clean breakout; otherwise, there is a large gap down to $239 that could be filled.

XBI

Currently trades at $147.01, 1.13% above the 50SMA and 14.11% above the 200SMA

RSI 48.6

21.09% YTD

The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It had been too overbought to get long, but as I wrote, 'an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in.' In fact, it has pulled back below the 21-day moving average and is a whisker away from the 50-day SMA (see arrow).

Likewise, ARKG pulled back to test the SMA 50 (See arrow)

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 62.4%

Breadth decreased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 62.4%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

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Overview

Bloom Energy’s record-breaking performance in the second quarter of 2026 was primarily driven by a surge in demand for its onsite power solutions, particularly from the AI sector.

The company has successfully positioned its technology as a superior alternative to traditional combustion-based power for major US hyperscalers, AI labs, and data centre operators.

This strategic shift toward serving high-demand “AI factories” has resulted in significant revenue scaling and a transition to profitable growth, supported by disciplined execution and increased operational capacity.

Financial Highlights

• Record Revenue: Achieved $1.065 billion in quarterly revenue, a 165.5% increase year-over-year.

  • Product Revenue Growth: Driven by a 215.4% increase in product revenue to $935.4 million.

• Margin Expansion: GAAP gross margin reached 33.4%, an improvement of 668 basis points compared to the prior-year period.

• Profitability: Reported GAAP operating income of $182.2 million, compared to an operating loss of $3.5 million in Q2 2025.

• Cash Flow: Generated $226.4 million in cash flow from operating activities, a substantial improvement from the $213.1 million net cash used in the same period last year.

• Earnings Per Share: GAAP EPS reached $0.62, compared to a loss of $(0.18) in Q2 2025.

Full-Year 2026 Guidance
Bloom Energy has raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance, reflecting confidence in its continued growth trajectory:

• Full-Year Revenue: Projected in the range of $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, representing 100% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

• Non-GAAP Gross Margin: Anticipated to be approximately 34%

• Non-GAAP Operating Income: Expected to be between $800 million and $900 million [1].

• Non-GAAP EPS: Projected in the range of $2.55 to $2.85

Key Takeaways

• AI Market Validation: Management reports that all major US hyperscalers, along with over a dozen US neoclouds and AI labs, have validated and approved Bloom Energy’s solutions, establishing the company as a standard for AI onsite power.

• Strategic Shift: The business is benefiting from customers moving away from traditional combustion technologies toward Bloom’s unique power solutions, which are increasingly viewed as essential for the energy-intensive requirements of modern AI infrastructure.

• Operational Milestone: This quarter marked the first time the company surpassed $1 billion in quarterly revenue, reflecting the successful scaling of its capacity and capabilities.

• Corporate Restructuring: On May 27, 2026, the company filed a Certificate of Second Amendment to its Restated Certificate of Incorporation, renaming its Class A common stock to common stock and eliminating references to Class B common stock.

I do feel BE remains one of the leading “off the grid” solutions in the AI buildout although it does come with a premium multiple.

I'll leave you with this from KR Sridhar, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Bloom Energy:

“The demand for Bloom Energy’s solutions keeps accelerating every quarter as customers who traditionally defaulted to combustion technologies are now proactively choosing Bloom as a superior power solution. Today, all the major US hyperscalers and over a dozen US neoclouds, AI labs, and colocation data center operators have validated and approved our power solutions for their AI factories. Bloom is now a standard for AI onsite power.”

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

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“CHINA STARTS MASS-PRODUCING HOMEGROWN DUV CHIPMAKING TOOLS, AN ADVANCE FOR LOCAL CHIP INDUSTRY” — THE INFORMATION

Breaking it down, China has begun limited production of its own immersion DUV lithography tools. Developer Shanghai Yuliangsheng plans to deliver 5 machines in 2026 to Chinese chipmakers such as SMIC, Hua Hong, and CXMT (ChangXin Memory), with output expected to rise to approximately 20 machines in 2027.

These tools still lag behind ASML’s equivalents in performance, throughput, and reliability. They will require months of additional testing and qualification before running on actual production lines.

Market Impact my thoughts and any Trades I am taking:

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Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary)

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Subscribe now

Indices

Dow Jones declined 0.68% in the last week

S&P 500 declined 1.25% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite declined 3.12% in the last week

IWM declined 1.32% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, July 27

• Advance Durable Goods Orders (June)

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

Tuesday, July 28

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller & FHFA House Price Indexes

• CB Consumer Confidence Index (July)

• FOMC Meeting Day 1

Wednesday, July 29

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Policy Statement (2:00 PM ET):

  • The headline event of the week.

• Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 PM ET)

Thursday, July 30

• Q2 Advance GDP (8:30 AM ET)

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) & Core PCE (June)

• Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, July 31

• Employment Cost Index (ECI - Q2)

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final July)

• Chicago PMI (July)

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,411.98, 0.8% below the 50SMA and 5.8% above the 200SMA.

RSI 44.86

8.07% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The S&P 500 closed the week below the 50 day moving average for the second consecutive week. Caution is advised.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 24,975.82, 4.23% below the 50SMA and 4.31% above the 200SMA.

RSI 38.67

7.49% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The Nasdaq Composite closed below the 50-day moving average for the fourth time in five weeks and is at risk of breaching the 25,000 horizontal support level. This upcoming week will be pivotal as major constituents like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report earnings.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $64,111.39, 1.34% above the 50SMA and 11.42% below the 200SMA.

RSI 49.22

-27.86% YTD.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act.

As of Saturday, July 25th at 13:09 BST, BTC is trading at 64,016.71. From a technical perspective, it is holding above the 50-day moving average yet firmly below the 200 SMA. The 5/21 EMA cross is holding. Bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 200 SMA in coming weeks given it has served as a strong resistance.

EEM

Currently trades at $63.33, 5.01% below the 50SMA and 6.24% above the 200SMA

RSI 41.02

+13.19% YTD

EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD the gap has narrowed to around 500bps

EEM closes the week comfortably below both the 21 and 50 day SMA’s. It seems like a re-test of the 200 day is certainly in play and to the upside bulls will want to see the SMA 50 reclaimed (see arrows)

Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the ETF, it may be due for a period of chop as those stocks have started to trade quite wide and loose due to shifting sentiments related to memory stocks.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4,0502.00, 4.69% below the 50SMA and 9.61% below the 200SMA

RSI 40.71

-6.26% YTD

In early June, Gold lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023. That is notable, and it has not been able to come close to reclaiming it.

The 21-day moving average has tended to be a resistance point for Gold. While it was reclaimed in the middle of the week, Gold did close below it to close out the week. It still traded positively on the week and broke out of a descending wedge-type pattern, albeit only just (see chart).

While it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200-day at 4,478 (see arrow). I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.

SOXX

Currently trades at $527.01, 7.4% below the 50SMA and 32.69% above the 200SMA

RSI 42.78

68.19% YTD

On July 6th, SOXX printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, signaling a near-term momentum shift, and has mostly been trending down since. While SOXX traded flat this week, it closed below the 50 SMA and was rejected at the overhead 21 EMA and 50 SMA (see arrows). Bulls would like to see the horizontal support at 490 hold to the downside and then for overhead moving averages to be reclaimed.

MU

Currently trades at $920.95, 3.59% below the 50SMA and 83.5% above the 200SMA

RSI 47.14

192.14% YTD

Recently on MU I had written:

“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”

While MU traded up on the week, it closed below its 50-day moving average for the second consecutive week. Micron has also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 21-day moving average and a weekly close back above the 50-day.

Likewise, SNDK, another leading memory winner this year, has started to find resistance at the overhead 50 SMA.

LLY (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $1196.03, 5.9% above the 50SMA and 17.96% above the 200SMA

RSI 57.01

11.08% YTD

Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest mega-caps in the market.

From a technical perspective, the stock violated the 21-day EMA during the week but closes out above all key moving averages which is a positive. The 1240 level above could be a near term resistance point.

BE

Currently trades at $184.89, 31.49% below the 50SMA and 4.85% above the 200SMA

RSI 57.01

87.34% YTD

Bloom Energy (BE), a leading off-the-grid energy play, has pulled back sharply, dropping almost 50% from its recent highs. It is at an interesting juncture, testing the 200 SMA, a level it has not tested since June 2025, alongside a gap fill from the early April gap.

XBI

Currently trades at $150.48, 4.83% above the 50SMA and 17.82% above the 200SMA

RSI 48.6

23.95% YTD

The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It has been too overbought to get long but I had written “an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in”. It has pulled back to the 21 day moving average but given the bearish 5/21 cross it is possible it may correct further potentially to the SMA 50 (See arrow)

Likewise, ARKG also closed the week below EMA 21 (see arrow)

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 65.8%

Breadth increased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 65.8%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Exited LITE for the 1 session +15%

IMPORTANT: To familiarise yourself with the notification process, please read the following post regarding the notification system.

• I have also included the link to the Live Updates thread on the Substack chat below, which is where I post all moves related to my investment account. Turn the notifications on. Live Updates Thread

• Note that these updates are posted simultaneously on Discord as well.

Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (Investment Account) as of July 25 2026

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Al-Erian summed up the current state of markets succinctly below

“It's a better day for markets across the board, as oil prices fall on news of Pakistan-driven mediation and indications that some tankers are making it through the two maritime chokepoints. What's still missing is widespread confidence in the endpoint for the US-Iran conflict”

I tend to agree, and as noted in my morning write-up (see link below): 'While rates sit at 4.7% and rising, alongside crude at 89 and a stronger USD, these headwinds will hit the usual suspects: tech (especially unprofitable tech), EM equities, precious metals, consumer discretionary, etc.' Until we see an end to the Iran war, crude pulling back, and rates stabilising, it's tough to envision market confidence returning to the levels we saw in April and May.

Link to Subscriber Chat:

Several AI leaders finding resistance at overhead moving averages

I know many of you may not be chart watchers, but I wanted to highlight an interesting observation: many prior leading growth stocks are simultaneously being rejected at their 50-day moving averages. In simple terms, when a prior level that used to act as support becomes resistance when tested from below, that is concerning. At least until it flips back to support. Below, we have charts for MU, SNDK, LITE, NBIS, and CRDO highlighting this point.

MU

SNDK

LITE

CRDO

NBIS

If you're holding these names and considering where to trim, selling into the overhead moving averages makes sense. On the flip side, if you're looking to add, waiting for the moving average to flip back to support should offer a clearer path forward.

Finviz Sector Map (as of 12:30 PM ET):

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

• Equities: SPX is down 1.44% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.65%.

• Crypto: BTC is down 1.9% and Ethereum is down 2.2%.

Crude has also surged 7% on the day to break above $92.

The primary driver is geopolitical escalation, specifically US/Iran tensions alongside Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers. With threats active in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, traffic through Hormuz has already slowed materially.

Given this dynamic, it is no surprise to see Crude up, USD up, Energy equities up, and defensives up, while tech stocks and EM equities are down.

Indices

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are below their 21-day and 50-day moving averages now, and the Nasdaq Composite is sitting right at a horizontal level of interest at 25,000, which seems likely to breach (see chart). If breached, one would think the 200-day is in play, especially if megacaps continue to display weakness post the Google print.

The S&P 500 is holding up a little better, with its horizontal level of interest at 7,250.

Strategy and names I am watching:

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Full disclosure: I am currently long GOOGL from $124/share, having already taken off close to 3x my initial cost basis.

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Overview

Alphabet delivered a solid second quarter , characterised by a 24% year-over-year revenue growth and significant momentum across its AI-integrated product ecosystem.

Their performance is primarily driven by the rapid adoption of its AI-powered Search experiences and the explosive growth of Google Cloud, which is benefiting from strong demand for AI infrastructure and enterprise-grade agentic solutions.

While the company faces a supply-constrained environment for compute resources, it is aggressively scaling its technical infrastructure to meet demand, resulting in a strategic shift toward increased capital expenditure and the utilisation of third-party capacity to bridge near-term supply gaps.

Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Highlights

• Consolidated Revenue: $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year with Operating margins rising to 34% from 32.4% Y/Y

• Google Cloud Revenue: $24.8 billion, an 82% increase with operating margins rising to 35.6% from 20.7% Y/Y

• Google Services Revenue: $94.54B, +15% Y/Y with operating margins rising to 41.8% from 40.1%

  • Search and Other Revenue: $63.3 billion, representing 17% growth .

• Operating Income: $40.8 billion, reflecting a 30% increase .

• Net income: $112.19B; +298% YoY (Sizeable equity gain impact)

• Cloud Backlog: Reached $514 billion, increasing by over $50 billion sequentially.

• Free Cash Flow: ($5.855B) from $5.3B in Q2 25.

• Capital Expenditures: $44.9 billion for the quarter rising from $22.45B in Q2 ‘25

Financial Guidance and Outlook

Alphabet has raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion (up from its previous estimate of $180 billion to $190 billion) in an effort to accelerate the rollout of compute capacity.

Management expects this significant technical infrastructure investment to weigh on the P&L via elevated depreciation and data centre operating costs. Additionally, the company plans to utilise third-party capacity in the third quarter as a bridge to meet customer demand, which will create modest, near-term margin pressure.

Looking further ahead, Alphabet expects the majority of revenue from its current TPU system sales agreements to be realised in 2027, while remaining focused on long-term Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) across its full-stack AI strategy.

Key Takeaways

• AI-Driven Search Evolution: The integration of AI Overviews and AI Mode is driving an incremental increase in total query volume, with AI Mode surpassing 1 billion monthly active users.

• Enterprise AI Adoption: Nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies are now utilising Gemini Enterprise, signaling deep penetration into the corporate sector for agentic workflows and data analytics .

• Infrastructure Scaling: Alphabet is aggressively expanding its AI infrastructure, including the deployment of the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform and proprietary TPU 8t/8i chips, to support a “million AI accelerators” connected into a unified supercomputer .

• Agentic Development: The company’s “Antigravity” platform has reached 2.4 million weekly active users, significantly accelerating internal development timelines, such as a Chrome team project that compressed a two-year timeline into three months .

• Strategic Hardware Sales: Alphabet has begun recognising revenue from the sale of TPU systems directly to customer data centres, a new revenue stream that is expected to ramp significantly through 2027.

Final thoughts and my plans:

GOOGL delivered a very solid set of numbers. However, the sheer size of their investments is finally showing up on the statements, with a massive capex number resulting in their first negative free cash flow quarter in history as a publicly traded company.

That is not to say they are not seeing an ROI: revenue is increasing, and so are margins. An obvious example is GCP, which grew revenue at 82% (!) while operating margins expanded from 20.7% to 35.6%.

Going forward, however, management stated that they expect this significant infrastructure investment to weigh on the P&L due to elevated depreciation and data centre operating costs.

Looking more broadly, the huge capex guidance is bullish for the AI infrastructure space, especially for the companies Google plans to utilise for third-party capacity as a bridge to meet customer demand.

This is likely to benefit CoreWeave, which serves as their primary specialised AI cloud provider via CoreWeave Interconnect. Other likely beneficiaries include Lambda Labs, Nebius, and Applied Digital, as well as Oracle via Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). xAI is also in the mix.

I have been long GOOGL as a core position for several years, and my plan is to continue holding. I recently took off my cost basis, and while I am unlikely to add here given the potential near-term pressure from their massive investments, I am comfortable holding. Google remains one of, if not the single best, full-stack AI stories in the market. The takeaway from this report is clear: the ultimate winner here is the AI infrastructure complex.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Below are a few quick thoughts on how I’m positioning ahead of the next few days, starting with a brief recap of my weekend notes.

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Weekend commentary from Preview of the Week Ahead post

“In recent weeks, especially since July 1st, we have seen signs of a market rotation, with mega-caps, software, healthcare, and consumer names catching a bid. Last week was a mixed bag: energy, consumer defensives, and healthcare generally performed well, whereas technology—particularly semiconductors and AI-related names—continued to take a sharp hit.

While the unwind in momentum has been sharp, the preceding run-up was historic and, in my opinion, went too far, too fast.

Regarding the semiconductor and AI complex, I believe several names are becoming much more attractive. The issue is that they remain expensive on trailing metrics while looking reasonable on forward estimates—precisely what bears will point to when arguing the outlook is overly optimistic. Consequently, these equities currently sit in a middle ground: too expensive for value investors, yet lacking the momentum that trend followers require. Given that many are in near-term downtrends with broken technical structures, a period of consolidation until positive sentiment and catalysts return seems the most likely outcome.

Overall, I think it is time to start prudently looking for investment opportunities if you believe in the long-term AI buildout thesis. However, given the technical damage and major mega-cap earnings coming at the end of the month, patience remains key.”

Current Market Context & Earnings Ahead

This sharp rebound came a bit sooner than I anticipated, especially with GOOGL reporting earnings on Wednesday, the 22nd. I initially wondered if market participants would hold off until after results, but the bounce has certainly been welcome.

The market appears to be reaffirming that we are still severely short on compute capacity, supported by recent announcements from both Moonshot and Databricks (refer to recent posts by Moonshot and WallStengine on X below)

I expect GOOGL earnings to be a major market catalyst.

• The Key Metric: Everyone will be hyper-focused on Capex, specifically total spend, quarter-over-quarter growth, and forward guidance.

• Potential Scenarios:

  • If Capex guidance is raised, expect the broader AI trade to react favourably.

  • Conversely, because we’ve front-run earnings with strong upside moves across memory, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure, there is a risk of a sell-the-news event if expectations aren’t fully met.

Current Strategy & Watchlist

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Shares have responded favourably thus far:

Massive New Deal Flow: Signed $2.8 billion in new multi-year AI Cloud contracts with leading AI developers.

• Raised Guidance: Upgraded the year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target from $3.7 billion to over $4.0 billion.

• Locked-In Revenue: Roughly 85% of this new $4B+ target is already secured by signed contracts.

• The Bottom Line: This surge in signed business significantly boosts revenue visibility and validates strong, ongoing demand.

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When it comes to trading, many leading names are far from being actionable right now and their charts need significant work, especially semis, space, AI supply chain and robotics. With these stocks, it is probably better to wait for key MAs or horizontal levels to be recaptured, or for MA crossovers to occur, before getting long. In other words, you have plenty of time.

Just to reinforce the point, below are the leading megacaps by technical strength as per StockCharts. Yet many of these are now 30% to 35% off their highs, and only a handful are above their 50-day moving average right now!

That said, select software and healthcare names look much more promising and are currently more actionable. If you are still keen to trade in this poor environment, focusing on those stronger sectors while using super tight stops and selling into moving averages is the way forward.

I will be looking to get aggressive again if and when conditions improve. As always, I will flag any new trades in the Discord and update the tables for the weekly posts.

My open trading positions with stop-loss commentary, alongside the Weekly Trading Ideas Cheat Sheet, are included below. (Note: My investment portfolio positions are included in the weekly preview of the Week Ahead post, linked below.)

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Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary)

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

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Indices

Dow Jones declined 1.14% in the last week

S&P 500 declined 1.36% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite declined 2.22% in the last week

IWM declined 0.54% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, July 20

• Conference Board (CB) Leading Economic Index (June)

• Treasury Bill Auctions

Tuesday, July 21

• Redbook Retail Sales Index (YoY)

• API Crude Oil Stock Change

Wednesday, July 22

• MBA Mortgage Applications & Rates

• EIA Petroleum Status Report

• Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

Thursday, July 23

• Initial Jobless Claims

• Housing Market Data (New & Existing Home Sales)

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)

• NY Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

Friday, July 24

• S&P Global Flash PMIs (July):

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI

  • Flash Services PMI

  • Flash Composite PMI

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,457.69, 0.10% below the 50SMA and 6.73% above the 200SMA.

RSI 48.34

8.47% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 2

The S&P 500 closes the week below the 50 day moving average. Caution is advised.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 25,220.24, 2.37% below the 50SMA and 6.88% above the 200SMA.

RSI 44.21

9.83% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 2

The Nasdaq Composite closes below the 50 day for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $64,111.39, 0.9% above the 50SMA and 12.38% below the 200SMA.

RSI 52.57

-27.75% YTD.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump did publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act.

As of Saturday, July 18th at 17:16 BST, BTC is trading at 64,111.39. From a technical perspective, it is trading above the 21 and 50-day moving averages yet firmly below the 200 SMA. the 5/21 EMA cross is holding. Bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 200 SMA in time given it has served as a strong resistance.

EEM

Currently trades at $63.29, 5.42% below the 50SMA and 6.69% above the 200SMA

RSI 39.45

+13.12% YTD

EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD. However, the gap has narrowed to around 450bps

EEM closes the week comfortably below both the 21 and 50 day SMA’s. It seems like a re-test of the 200 day is certainly in play (see arrow).

Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is that it may not be the best representative of emerging markets as a whole, given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the fund. Notably, these were all down significantly this week.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4,016.89, 6.93% below the 50SMA and 10.3% below the 200SMA

RSI 40.71

-7.97% YTD

Gold recently lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023. That is notable, and it has not bee able to come close to reclaiming it.

Gold continues to be rejected at the descending 20-day EMA (see arrow) and is now serving as a clear resistance point. Whilst it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200 day at 4478. I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.

MU

Currently trades at $848.95, 9.06% below the 50SMA and 75.8% above the 200SMA

RSI 41.01

169.3% YTD

Last week on MU I had written:

“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”

The selling pressure on MU continued this week, with the stock closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late March. Micron has also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see an initial close back above the 50-day, followed by a reclaim of the 21-day as well.

SNDK

Currently trades at $1354.82, 21.43% below the 50SMA and 73.31% above the 200SMA

RSI 38.68

392.23% YTD

Last week on SNDK I had written:

SNDK did trade down to the 50-day SMA, which it held, and closed the week above all key moving averages. In comparison, we saw above that MU was rejected at the 21-day EMA. A retest and hold of the 21-day EMA may offer a strong entry if looking to position long, or conversely, one could wait for another retest of the 50-day SMA

In the last week SNDK has in fact corrected almost 25% and now looks like a broken chart. Significant technical work needs to be done for it to look more constructive beginning with a reclaim of the EMA 21 and SMA 50. Like MU, the 21 day served as resistance (see arrow)

SOXX

Currently trades at $521.81, 7.84% below the 50SMA and 33.59% above the 200SMA

RSI 41.05

66.53% YTD

Last week, whilst the SOXX closed above the SMA 50, it printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, which I wrote was worth noting as a near-term momentum shift. This week, the SOXX was down ~10% and broke below the SMA 50 convincingly. It also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrow). Interestingly, it bounced at $498, which was also the May 12 low.

LLY (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $1179.11, 6.3% above the 50SMA and 17.33% above the 200SMA

RSI 54.87

9.51% YTD

Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest megacaps in the market.

From a technical perspective, the stock violated the 21-day EMA intra-week but closed the week above it. While this could offer a buying opportunity here, given that it came close to printing a 5/21 EMA cross, I reduced my position for a +27% gain.

XBI

Currently trades at $154.26, 8.76% above the 50SMA and 21.98% above the 200SMA

RSI 55.38

27.07% YTD

The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It has been too overbought to get long but I had written “an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in”. This week the XBI did pull back to and hold the EMA 21 (see chart) it could be an interesting level to consider getting long it it can hold.

Likewise, ARKG also closed right at the EMA 21 (see arrow)

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 64.6%

Breadth decreased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 64.6%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

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The Wegovy® pill approval is a landmark moment in the treatment of obesity in Europe, making it the first GLP-1 receptor agonist available in tablet form for weight management across all European Union member states. It marks the fifth regulatory approval of Wegovy® pill, after the US, UK, UAE and Bahrain.

This is an important milestone given that the oral Wegovy launch has been successful. Since Lilly's GLP-1 pill (Foundayo) hit the market in April, Lilly has captured ~11% of the Rx volume for new pills, while Novo's Wegovy pill has captured 89%.

My open trading positions and stop-loss commentary are below. (Note: My investment portfolio positions are included in the weekly preview of the Week Ahead post, linked below.)

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