Given the stock is up ~40% on the day and pending full FDA approval, I have trimmed a small portion of my shares to lock in some gains.

My post from March 2nd is below:

Some brief thoughts on why I am adding significantly to my position and I believe the market’s reaction is overdone.

CLPT Overview

ClearPoint Neuro is a company that enables precision neurosurgery and access to the nervous system. The core business can be viewed mainly as four pillars:

1. Biologics and Drug Delivery,

2. Neurosurgery Navigation,

3. Laser Therapy,

4. Cranial Irrigation and Aspiration (which allows CLPT to enter the substantial Intracranial Haemorrhage market).

It is a razor-and-blades type business model but the primary driver for my investment is the massive potential in commercial drug delivery. ClearPoint currently supports over 60 active biopharma partners, including nine programs under FDA expedited review and one approved commercial partner, PTC Therapeutics. PTC Therapeutics’ KEBILIDI, exclusively uses ClearPoint’s SmartFlow® Cannula and this establishes a clear, validated blueprint for the remaining 8-9 late-stage partners.

The partners with confirmed FDA expedited status and their relevant details are displayed in the table below.

These are important partners because they represent companies currently close to being at the commercial stage. If even 1 or 2 of these follow PTC Therapeutics into full FDA approval by 2027, then $CLPT's revenue will see a significant step function increase. Furthermore, the high-margin commercial revenue from these partners would cover all their operating costs and in my view would lead to a re-rating of the stock.

We already saw first-hand proof of this with QURE in September when they released strong data showing AMT-130 slowed disease progression by 75% compared to external controls. QURE stock went from ~$14 to >$70 and CLPT went from $10 to $30 in a few days. If they get several partners, that is a blue-sky scenario. Of course, we know that in November the FDA did a 180, stating that the “Phase I/II data compared to external controls were unlikely to be sufficient to support an application.” Subsequently to this, both stocks round-tripped that move.

Where we are now
That brings us to today whereby uniQure (QURE) fell by >35% after the FDA rejected its Phase I/II data for AMT-130. The FDA stated the current results are insufficient to support a marketing application for Huntington’s disease and have strongly recommended that the company conduct a randomised, sham-surgery-controlled Phase III study. This significantly extends the development timeline and overshadows the company’s Q4 earnings beat and 2029 cash runway projection.

Clearpoint Neuro is down 25% or so on this news. Whilst this is relevant and important, I do not believe it is warranted for 2 main reasons:

• CLPT stock was not pricing in a QURE approval going into today. It had already round-tripped the 'QURE premium' from when the name first spiked from $14 to $30, and was actually trading back near $12 leading into this morning's news.

• More importantly, ClearPoint has several other partners in the final stages of clinical development. While uniQure ($QURE) remains a key partner with a significant therapy, it is just one of several high-potential programs in the pipeline.

What I am doing with my CLPT Position
I have increased my CLPT position by >30% with adds in the 8’s and 9’s. (To track just review the live updates thread on Substack Chat or The Live Updates channels on Substack). Note this does not account for when I covered my cost basis during September. I will continue to add if the stock remains at these depressed levels. Please note given there are hurdles and challenges, I have sized it appropriately, it has ~3% weighting in my portfolio after the drop but more at cost. I will be adding more in coming days.

Regarding catalysts, a significant move could happen at any time, though it will likely stem from one of the other partners currently in the FDA approval pipeline. Since these milestones may be weeks or months away, I believe one can remain patient while building a position.

I will continue to trade around a core, whilst keeping my core position intact always.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

• $CRWV +15% booked (2 days) | Position open

• BRZE +33% on calls | Closed

• HIMS +12% 1 day | Closed

• CAVA +8% 2 sessions| Closed

• $IREN +16% (2 days) | Position open

• $ASTS +55% (6 weeks) | Closed

• $USAR +10% | Position open (trimmed as high as $30 for +50% booked)

• $NOK +9% | Position open

• $IREN +18% | Closed

• $HIVE +1% | Closed

• $NOK +13% | Closed

• $OUST +33% | Position open

• $AMBA -2.35% | Position open

• $SOFI -1% loss (excluding options gain, +100% one day)

• $INTC -3% loss

• $COPX +3% | Position open

• $UAMY $7.50 CSPs | Position open (currently at a decent loss though 6 weeks to expiry)

• $FLY +74.4% | Closed

Has been a good stretch but still working on a lot of things.

To give some context, I was up 46% in January but ended up giving back too many gains during the February and March chop, wrapping up Q1 around +20%. Fortunately, April and May were strong months with some strong trades. My main focus now is learning from the February/March period to ensure I don’t give back too many profits.

So, to better protect my capital, I have been working on limiting maximum losses to 0.5% of my total account, which has been working well. While this tighter risk control did lead me to exit a few positions that later reversed, the vast majority of those stocks went much lower after I honoured my stop. I am currently sizing positions at 5% to keep risk manageable, though I am actively working on sizing up when I can secure a clean entry right against key support.

The set-ups I have been mainly taking are:

• Pullback to Support (Moving Average or Horizontal support)

• Undercut and Rally

• 5/21 EMA Crossover

• IPO AVWAP Hold or Recovery

• Flat Base breakout

I plan to put together a dedicated post outlining my framework soon, which I think will be highly helpful. In the meantime, I highly recommend keeping an eye on my weekly “Trade Ideas and Watchlist” posts (most recent one is below) where I break down active setups and specific entry points. Will be published tomorrow.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Please note I’ve kept these notes brief and actionable so they are easy to apply in practice. I have also included some charts to make the data more relatable.

Recent weeks post have had several strong performers, such as:

• ASTS: 74 to 130

• FLY: 32 to 62

• NOK: 12.4 to 16

• RBRK: 60 to 78

• IREN 52 to 61

• ORCL: 160 to 250

• CIFR: 18.5 to 28

• USAR 19 to 30

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The following post highlights recent trades plus more commentary:

Alerts
Alert management is crucial. I suggest setting alerts on your brokerage platform for the key levels you are watching in advance (not just for these ideas but also more generally it is a good habit).

Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades.

I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk; this could be 1 ATR (Average True Range), a violation of prior support (such as a horizontal level or key MA), or simply the daily low. The post below goes into more practical detail; be sure to give it a read. The ATR is included in the Summary Sheet at the end of this post also.

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

I will include a couple of charts here highlighting recent trades to better demonstrate how to use the levels featured below.

ASTS: Entry on SMA 200 reclaim of 72, stock is now 112 (went as high as 130) The arrow shows entry point, we exited at a weighted average of >115.

FLY: Entry on IPO AVWAP re-test and hold at 32, (Arrow shows entry point) Fully exited this at 61.77, weighted gain +74%.

IREN: Entry on SMA 50 re-test and hold. Stock 61 from 52 entry. The arrow shows the entry point.

OUST: Entry on EMA 20 re-test and hold. Stock is now 39 from 30 entry (went as high as 49) The arrow shows entry point.

USAR: Entry on SMA 50 re-test and add through reclaim. Stock went as high as 32 from entry, we trimmed at 30. The arrow shows entry point.

Trade Ideas plus summary table below:

Semiconductors & Tech Hardware

Read more

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Also, ensure to check out the post below regarding upcoming pricing changes plus feedback from our readers:

Indices

Dow Jones advanced 0.17% in the last week

S&P 500 declined 0.04% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32% in the last week

IWM advanced 3.05% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Tuesday, June 16

• FOMC Meeting Begins

Wednesday, June 17

• Fed Interest Rate Decision:

  • The central bank will release its policy statement. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

• Fed Press Conference

Thursday, June 18

• Initial Jobless Claims

• Global Macro Context

Friday, June 19

• US Market Holiday (Juneteenth): All US equity, options, and fixed-income markets are closed.

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7417.73, 2.35% above the 50SMA and 7.79% above the 200SMA.

RSI 52.73

8.15% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The SPX had a volatile week, coming close to touching the 50-day SMA before reclaiming the 21-day EMA by the close. There was one distribution day this week, following two last week.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 25,888.84, 2.69% above the 50SMA and 10.49% above the 200SMA.

RSI 49.56

11.42% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The Nasdaq Composite tested the 50-day SMA twice this week, but unlike the S&P 500, it closed below its 21-day EMA. There was one distribution day this week.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $63,552.44, 14.62% below the 50SMA and 18.41% below the 200SMA.

RSI 32.96

-28.4% YTD.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average and is now back at the 200-week moving average. It is currently holding that level (See chart)

As of Friday, June 12th at 21:17 BST, BTC is trading below all key moving averages except the 5EMA. From a technical perspective, it remains technically weak. Bulls would want to see the 200-week MA hold, and then a reclaim of near-term moving averages. 74k above is a key level also and likely the 200 SMA will serve as resistance (see arrows)

EEM

Currently trades at $67.88, 4.84% above the 50SMA and 17.56% above the 200SMA

RSI 54.83

+20.71% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to comfortably outperform U.S. indices by more than 1200 bps year-to-date.

While it did lose the 21-day EMA last week and tested the 50-day SMA earlier this week, the stock ends the week above all key moving averages. The key levels to watch for pullback buys will be the 50-day SMA, followed by the $55–$57 zone (where horizontal support aligns with the 200-day SMA).

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4,214.42, 8.18% below the 50SMA and 4.75% below the 200SMA

RSI 35.02

-2.51% YTD

Gold lost its 200-day moving average last week for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023. That is notable and potentially concerning if not reclaimed.

I mentioned last week that the 4100 level below becomes an area of interest, and while it was undercut, gold has since reclaimed that level (see arrow). Bulls would like to see the key moving averages above reclaimed, starting with the 200 day.

NVDA (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $205.18, 0.73% below the 50SMA and 8.54% above the 200SMA

RSI 45.36

8.74% YTD

NVDA did trade as high as $240.00 two weeks ago on Friday to complete the measured move post its breakout.

However, since its Q1 print, NVDA has pulled back and is currently trading below its 50-day moving average. If that level is not reclaimed, we could see NVDA test the 200-day SMA at $189.04. This may serve as a compelling risk-reward level to add exposure, given that the forward P/E would drop below 14x at that price.

SOXX

Currently trades at $596.78, 22.43% above the 50SMA and 69.15% above the 200SMA

RSI 61.63

90.19% YTD

Last week I had written:

SOXX sold off on almost three times its normal volume on Friday. Interestingly, the last time this level of selling occurred for the SOXX was on October 10th, which marked the beginning of the correction for many AI stocks. Bulls would want to see the 21 day regained.

This week, while SOXX did undercut last Friday's lows, it has bounced back very sharply and is now trading close to 600 (charts from this week and last week included below). What a difference a week makes!

DDOG (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $229.9, 29.76% above the 50SMA and 53.68% above the 200SMA

RSI 44.01

71.86% YTD

DDOG had a large gap up post its recent quarterly earnings, qualifying as a power earnings gap (PEG). The stock ran as high as $280 and is now forming a base. It currently sits at the 21-day moving average and may be an interesting place to go long. My suspicion is it will need strength in IGV before this can get it’s next leg up.

Important: I will feature several other Trading ideas in the Watchlist Snapshot post, so keep a look out for that post later. It will also include my Trading Account holdings.

Recent weeks post (link below) have had countless positions responding to key levels and running sharply such as:

• ASTS 74 to 130

• FLY 32 to 62

• NOK 12.4 to 16

• RBRK 60 to 78

• CIFR 18 to 25

• USAR 19 to 30

• ORCL 160 to 225

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 61%

Breadth improved this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average increasing to 61%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Re-entered STM at 68

Read more

Read more

On Monday, the 8th of June, in my Market Thoughts update (link is below), I wrote that we had a low-volume bounce after Friday’s high-volume sell-off and mentioned that usually the first bounce can’t be trusted. Further, “the market is starting to look heavy here” and so “this is a time for risk management rather than aggression.” Yesterday, on the 9th of June, the QQQs were also down >5% at one point.

My suggestions were: “No need for drastic measures, but I do feel this is a time for risk management rather than aggression.

• Review your active trading positions, tighten stops on partial or full allocations, and consider protecting new capital until a clearer directional setup emerges.

• If looking to hedge then one simple strategy (besides holding cash) is to purchase longer-term put options when the S&P 500 falls below a key moving average, such as its 21-day EMA. I personally am not hedging right now, except holding some cash.

Of course, if you are long-term investing, then there is nothing to change, except to ensure you are happy with your overall exposure”

I am seeing more red flags now, and as such my market thoughts plus thoughts on how to proceed are as below:

Read more

Below, I have included some real chart examples showing that the stocks responded well to these levels, often coming within a few cents of our key targets. I hope these walk-throughs provide more context on how best to use these charts.

The ATR can be used to guide your stop loss and manage risk.

MU: Pullback and hold of EMA 21

Stock bounced close to 90 points or more than 9%

Read more

I believe there were several catalysts for the sell-off: a hot jobs print (interpreted as an increased chance of rate hikes), Broadcom’s earnings, over-crowded positioning in semiconductors, and the fact that the SMH top-10 ranking implied volatility was in the 80%-plus zone for essentially every name except NVIDIA. That is not to mention the impact of leveraged Korean traders on specific semiconductor names plus cautious commentary by firms such as SemiAnalysis.

My quick thoughts on the market below:

Price action:
Today we have had a low-volume bounce following Friday’s high-volume sell-off.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are currently trading below their respective 21-day EMAs which is a level that has not been breached since this rally began in April. See charts below:

Market breadth continues to deteriorate, with only 52% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages as performance remains heavily concentrated in leading AI names. While the S&P 500 may have closed green , cyclicals and defensives are flashing warning signs, with the XLB, XLF, XLI, and XLP all trading in the red.

The broader market is starting to look heavy here.

My suggestion:

No need for drastic measures, but I do feel this is a time for risk management rather than aggression.

Review your active trading positions, tighten stops on partial or full allocations, and consider protecting new capital until a clearer directional setup emerges. If looking to hedge then one simple strategy (besides holding cash) is to purchase longer-term put options when the S&P 500 falls below a key moving average, such as its 21-day EMA. I personally am not hedging right now, except holding some cash.

Of course, if you are long-term investing, then there is nothing to change, except to ensure you are happy with your overall exposure.

Be sure to revisit my posts under the Investing Philosophy tab, such as Minimising Drawdowns, Risk Management, and Sell-Rules.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Recent weeks post have had several strong performers, such as:

• ASTS: 74 to 130

• FLY: 32 to 62

• NOK: 12.4 to 16

• RBRK 60 to 78

• ORCL: 160 to 250

• CIFR: 18.5 to 28

• USAR 19 to 30

Alert management is crucial. I suggest setting alerts on your brokerage platform for the key levels you are watching in advance (not just for these ideas but also more generally it is a good habit)

Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades. I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk; this could be 1 ATR (Average True Range), a violation of prior support (such as a horizontal level or key MA), or simply the daily low. The post below goes into more detail; be sure to give it a read.

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

I will include a couple of charts here highlighting recent trades to better demonstrate how to use the levels featured below.

ASTS: Entry on SMA 200 reclaim of 72, stock is now 112 (went as high as 130) The arrow shows entry point.

FLY: Entry on IPO AVWAP re-test and hold at 32, (Arrow shows entry point) Fully exited this at 61.7

OUST: Entry on EMA 20 re-test and hold. Stock is now 39 from 30 entry (went as high as 49) The arrow shows entry point.

USAR: Entry on SMA 50 re-test and add through reclaim. Stock is now 28 from 19 entry (went as high as 32). The arrow shows entry point.

Trade Ideas plus summary table below:

Semiconductors:

Read more

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts (I am looking to buy)

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Also, ensure to check out the post below regarding upcoming pricing changes plus feedback from our readers:

Indices

Dow Jones declined 0.08% in the last week

S&P 500 declined 2.5% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite declined 4.58% in the last week

IWM declined 2.14% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

• Monday, June 8

  • CB Employment Trends Index (May)

  • NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations: Reflects consumer sentiment regarding forward-looking price pressures.

• Tuesday, June 9

  • NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)

  • Balance of Trade (April)

  • Existing Home Sales (May)

• Wednesday, June 10

  • Consumer Price Index / CPI (May): High Impact.

• Thursday, June 11

  • Producer Price Index / PPI (May)

  • Initial Jobless Claims

• Friday, June 12

  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June - Preliminary)

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,383.74, 3.18% above the 50SMA and 7.66% above the 200SMA.

RSI 48.77

7.66% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 2

The SPX had a very weak close to the week, closing down 2.64%. There were also two distribution days this week.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 25,709.43, 3.78% above the 50SMA and 10.24% above the 200SMA.

RSI 73.92

10.65% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The Nasdaq Composite like the S&P had a very weak close to the week, closing down 4.18% on Friday. There was one distribution day this week.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $60,744.84, 20% below the 50SMA and 22.7% below the 200SMA.

RSI 15.4

-31.55% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a couple of weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was rejected at its 200-day moving average and is now back at the 200-week moving average.

As of Saturday, June 6th at 23:04 BST, BTC is trading below all key moving averages, including the 200-week moving average. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin looks especially weak right now. Bulls would want to see the 200-week MA hold, and then a reclaim of near-term moving averages.

EEM

Currently trades at $64.59, 1.38% above the 50SMA and 12.67% above the 200SMA

RSI 43.27

+14.85% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by more than 700 bps.

It did lose the 21-day EMA earlier this week and will likely re-test the 50-day SMA if any weakness remains. Below that, the key levels to watch for pullback buys are around $55–$56 (where horizontal support aligns with the 200-day SMA). I would not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East.

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4327.57, 6.43% below the 50SMA and 1.71% below the 200SMA

RSI 44.55

0.11% YTD

Gold closed down 3.29% on Friday, losing it’s 200 day Moving Average in the process. The 4100 level below becomes an area of interest, otherwise bulls would like to see key moving averages above reclaimed.

NVDA (Currently Long)

Currently trades at $205.1, 0.93% above the 50SMA and 8.9% above the 200SMA

RSI 44.01

8.74% YTD

NVDA was featured a few weeks ago when it was trading at $208, at which time I wrote that a move above $212.19 could see it trading at $240. NVDA did trade as high as $240.00 two weeks ago on Friday to complete the measured move.

However, since its Q1 print, NVDA has pulled back and was down over 6% on Friday to test its 50-day SMA. Below that, the 200-day SMA at $188.34 may serve as a high risk-reward level to add exposure. At that price, the forward P/E would drop below 14x.

SOXX

Currently trades at $539.77, 16.73% above the 50SMA and 56.75% above the 200SMA

RSI 52.89

72.18% YTD

SOXX sold off on almost three times its normal volume on Friday. Interestingly, the last time this level of selling occurred for the SOXX was on October 10th, which marked the beginning of the correction for many AI stocks. Bulls would want to see the 21 day regained.

NOW (Currently Long in Investing account at ~$94)

Currently trades at $112.45, 13.52% above the 50SMA and 19.78% below the 200SMA

RSI 54.53

-23.74% YTD

Recently I had written:

NOW has caught some investor attention recently. Insiders have been buying, and Jensen Huang has been praising the company, but it was revealed Trump personally owns this stock, accumulating it between February and March. This week, the 5-day EMA has flipped above the 20-day EMA, and the stock has reclaimed the 50-day SMA for the first time in almost a year. The stock will have to defend this level now. On the upside, I see ~125 as the first area of interest, followed by the overhead 200-day moving average.

This week, NOW did trade as high as $138, though it was rejected at the descending 200-day moving average. NOW needs to hold the $109/$110 level, which aligns with the 21 EMA and would also serve as a gap fill; so, it is an important level to hold. If held, I see the 200-day moving average as the next target above.

AAOI

Currently trades at $177, 12.92% above the 50SMA and 152.38% above the 200SMA

RSI 46.81

346.97% YTD

AAOI is a company that designs and manufactures advanced optical networking hardware. It has been a huge winner YTD, though in recent weeks the stock has pulled back, a pattern other optics names have also demonstrated.

It did lose its 21-day EMA recently, and the 50-day SMA will be an interesting level to watch for a pullback buy (see arrow).

Important: I will feature several other Trading ideas in the Watchlist Snapshot post, so keep a look out for that post later.

Recent weeks post (link below) have had countless positions responding to key levels and running sharply such as:

• ASTS 74 to 130

• FLY 32 to 62

• NOK 12.4 to 16

• RBRK 60 to 78

• CIFR 18 to 25

• USAR 19 to 30

• ORCL 160 to 225

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 54.6%

Breadth stayed static this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average staying at 54%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Read more

Format for what is covered in this Monthly Portfolio Update:

• Market Thoughts

• Indices Review

• Key Indicators

• SixSigmaCapital Performance: YTD and since Inception

• Featured Quote

• Current Positions in size order

• Closing Thoughts

If it is your first time here, ensure to check out what SixSigmaCapital readers are saying below:

For all readers a reminder that a premium subscription includes:

• Live Portfolio updates (All Buys and Sells) in Subscriber only Channels

• Favourite set-up Ideas, Market Memos plus Full archive

• Discord access for AMAs and live trading account updates (Annual Subscribers only)

• Monthly in depth portfolio & performance updates

Upgrade to a premium subscription via the link below:

Subscribe now

Market thoughts:

Equity markets had another strong month in May, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite posting month-over-month returns of +3.1%, +5.3%, and +8.9%, respectively.

For the last several months, I have been saying the following in this letter:

My perspective remains that there is plenty to be concerned about regarding the US economy and equity markets over the medium term” and

“Historically, there tends to be a large drawdown in the S&P 500 within the 12 months preceding election day. I do not know whether it will be Fed-related, a policy shock by the White House, or an economic downturn that triggers the drawdown (or something else entirely), but I think it is very likely we will see one given the way markets are behaving”

In the last year markets continued to climb the wall of worry though the indices finally cracked in March. The S&P 500 pulled back more than 9% peak-to-trough, and the Nasdaq fell 13%. Although this may seem modest compared to other pullbacks, significant damage was done under the hood: at the end of March, more than 42% of S&P 500 stocks were in a bear market, with more than 79% trading below their 50-day SMA. Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Financials were among the worst performers in Q1, while Energy was the best performer.

However, April and May brought a historic rebound. From the March 30 lows until the end of May, the S&P 500 gained more than 1,300 points (greater than 15%), while the Nasdaq Composite surged 6,300 points from its bottom (an advance of more than 30%). Both indexes ended the month of May at all-time highs. June has got off to an interesting start, more on that next time.

Beyond this, semiconductors and every layer of the tech supply chain are on a historic run; the SOXX ETF ended May up more than 85% since its March lows, leaving semiconductors as a group at their most overbought levels in history. In fact, they are even more overbought than they were during the dot-com bubble or the COVID-19 mania!

Before we forget, we are still seeing a stagflationary picture with up-ticking inflation, tapering GDP, and a generally weakening jobs market (the most recent NFP report notwithstanding). Notably, large companies are conducting layoffs en masse.

Unpopular view but I feel the aftermath war in the Middle East will likely serve as further headwinds in the coming months. If we look at oil specifically, I backtested what happens to equity markets when crude remains consistently above $100; I found that stocks can remain robust for around 20 days, but after that, they tend to suffer. This is something to pay attention to as we head into the rest of summer, though crude is currently at $90 after pulling back.

While we saw a correction in March, it remains to be seen if that was the major midterm election-year pullback or if another one will occur later in the year. Notably, S&P 500 earnings estimates continue to be revised upward, and the majority of companies are beating expectations and raising guidance. This fundamental strength argues against a large, index-level pullback; however, a retrace to the 50-day simple moving average or even the 7,000 breakout level on the SPX is not out of the equation. If a meaningful pullback does materialise, I will certainly be a buyer of select equities.

Inflation:

CPI: The April 2026 CPI data is presented below

• Headline CPI increased 3.8% YOY vs expectations of 3.7% YOY.

  • Headline CPI increased 0.6% MOM vs expectation of 0.6% MOM.

• Core CPI increased 2.8% YOY vs expectations of 2.7% YOY

  • Core CPI increased 0.4% MOM vs expectations of 0.3% MOM

PPI: The April 2026 PPI data is presented below

• Headline PPI increased 6.0% YOY vs expectations of 4.9% YOY.

  • Headline PPI increased 1.4% MOM vs expectation of 0.5% MOM.

• Core PPI increased 5.2% YOY vs expectations of 4.4% YOY

  • Core PPI increased 1.0% MOM vs expectations of 0.4% MOM

The headline figure was driven by a sharp rise in energy prices.

Below I have included charts showing the trend for both CPI and PPI:

PCE: With regards to the PCE price (Fed’s preferred metric), March ‘26 data came in largely as expected but showed re-acceleration, with core at its highest since late 2023.

• Headline PCE increased 3.8% YOY vs expectations of 3.8% YOY.

  • Headline PCE increased 0.4% MOM vs expectation of 0.5% MOM.

• Core PCE increased 3.3% YOY vs expectations of 3.2% YOY

  • Core PCE increased 0.2% MOM vs expectations of 0.2% MOM

Whilst Core PCE came in lighter than expectations, Core PCE has proven notably sticky throughout the last year.

FOMC Meeting:

At the most recent FOMC meeting on April 28-29, 2026, the FOMC decided to hold interest rates steady for a third consecutive meeting as they navigate persistent inflation and a cooling labor market. The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Interestingly, there were four dissents , the most since 1992. One for a 25bp cut and three against the “easing bias” language used.

The Committee reiterated that it is attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate (price stability and full employment). While energy costs are keeping inflationary pressure up, there are concerns that higher fuel prices will dampen disposable income and slow overall GDP growth.

No SEP projections were released, as they are only published quarterly.

Indices:

S&P 500

• Currently trades at 7,383.74 (7.66% YTD)

• It is 3.18% above the 50SMA.

• Trading at 25.73x trailing earnings and 22.19x forward earnings (per WSJ)

Nasdaq Composite:

• Currently trades at 25,709.43 (10.65% YTD)

• It is 3.78% above the 50SMA.

• Trading at 35.28x trailing earnings and 27.27x forward earnings (per WSJ)

Key Indicators:

• 10 Year T-Note: 4.536. It has increased by 8.34% YTD

• British Pound vs USD: 1.334 and is down 0.83% YTD.

• CPC (Put to Call Ratio) is 0.97. Note >1 can indicate Fear and >1.5 can be Extreme.

• VIX: 21.51. I have included a chart below showing the VIX over time and Nasdaq Comp underneath it: you can see that extreme readings have always been a buying opportunity in the medium term.

• NAAIM Exposure Index is 98.39 from 68.36 at the end of March. Interesting. Note it did get into the low 30’s in April 2025 (!)

• S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: 54.6% (<10 tend to be great buying opportunities)

• Fear and Greed Index (CNN) currently reads 42 which is in the ‘Fear’ zone. At the end of March it was 19 supposedly in the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone.

Consolidated Performance across Investment Account: YTD and since Inception of SixSigmaCapital (Equities only as of Friday 5th June)

2023: +94%

2024: +61%

2025: +57%

2026: +11.63% (with trading account gains it would be +19.53%)

TWR since Inception of SixSigmaCapital is thus +447.40% or a just over a 5.4x of the portfolio. The CAGR is 64%

TWR +4474% vs S&P 101.8%

TWR of S&P 500 in the same period is +101.81% or a 2.01x return.

SixSigmaCapital has achieved a +345.6% outperformance in that time period.

I remain pleased overall, as risk adjusted these results are very sound. Furthermore, all moves were disclosed in real time.

Equity curve since switching to my current brokerage in the last few years is below:

SixSigmaCapital Trading Account:

At the start of the year, I opened a dedicated trading account for active strategies. It was initially approximately 10% the size of my primary investment account, though has grown somewhat since then (now around 17% the size of the main book). The account is managed with a trading mindset and consists mostly of common shares, though I have utilised select options strategies.

The past month was a strong one with some needle moving trades in ARM, ASTS, FLY, OUST, USAR plus a couple of successful options trades. Of course there was several small losses and small wins also. The account progressed to +79% as of Friday 5th June.

Trading Account YTD: +79% YTD

If combined to the investment account, it would add 7.9% to the total performance.

Featured Quote:

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.” Stanley Druckenmiller

Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (Investment Account) as of June 5 2026

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Once known purely for powering early GoPro action cameras and basic dashcams, Ambarella ($AMBA) has completed a structural pivot. Today, it operates as a specialised, fabless semiconductor company focused entirely on Edge AI and computer vision processors.

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Overview

Ambarella designs the “brains” for devices that need to see, think, and understand their surroundings in real-time. Crucially, they do this via “Edge AI”, meaning the data is processed directly on the device itself (the “edge”) rather than sending video files back and forth to a distant cloud data centre.

Their system-on-a-chip (SoC) solutions power things like:

• Automotive: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), backup cameras, electronic mirrors, and autonomous driving tech.

• IoT & Physical Security: Smart city cameras, enterprise security setups, and smart home doorbells.

• Emerging Robotics: Delivery robots, warehouse automation, and commercial drones.

Business Model

As a fabless chipmaker, Ambarella does not own expensive manufacturing plants. They handle the high-value research, design, and software toolchains, then outsource the actual silicon manufacturing to foundries like TSMC and Samsung.

They generate revenue by selling their proprietary AI SoCs directly to hardware manufacturers and Tier-1 automotive suppliers. Edge AI chips now make up nearly 80% of total company revenue.

Moat?

Ambarella competes against giants like Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Mobileye. To survive, they lean into a highly specific technical moat:

• Proprietary CVflow® Architecture: Ambarella’s custom architecture excels at a highly complex trade-off: processing high-resolution video and deep-learning AI models while drawing tiny amounts of power and generating minimal heat. In a car or a battery-powered security camera, power efficiency is imperative.

• High Switching Costs: Once an automotive manufacturer or security giant spends years writing code and designing hardware around Ambarella’s chip architecture and software tools, switching to a competitor is incredibly expensive and disruptive.

• Sticky Enterprise Partnerships: Have been known to lock in massive, decade-long deals. For example, they recently signed an $800+ million multi-year co-development agreement with Hanwha across security and robotics.

Management

Ambarella has stable, founder-led management.

• CEO & Co-Founder Fermi Wang has helmed the company since its inception in 2004. He is respected in the semiconductor industry as a technical visionary, recently winning prestigious industry honours (like the 2026 IEEE Arun N. Netravali Award) for his contributions to video analytics.

• Managements Execution Strategy:

  • Management is highly focused on long-term R&D, often sacrificing near-term profitability to fund heavy engineering investments to keep their technology ahead of larger peers.

Financials and Valuation

Financials

At the time of writing, AMBA has a Market Cap of $3.16B with Cash & Inv. of $277.8M and Debt of $13.27M. AMBA is Net Cash positive, Debt to Equity ratio is 0.

Valuation

AMBA trades at:

• 7.1x LTM EV/S and 6.4x NTM EV/S.

• 42x NTM EV/EBITDA

• 87x NTM PE

• 51x NTM EV/FCF

AMBA is not a cheap stock by any means. It trades at a premium, likely because of its hyper-growth in Edge AI.

Bulls argue that Ambarella has premium technology and that its R&D investments will translate into steady GAAP profitability. They believe that if its perception-compute chips become foundational to the global robotics and automotive rollout, it represents a multi-bagger opportunity.

Conversely, bears caution that its premium valuation relies heavily on flawless execution and a steep future earnings ramp.

Chart and Technicals

Currently trades at $72.05, 6.64% above the 50SMA and 0.41% below the 200SMA.

RSI 45.28

-4.14% YTD

AMBA is not in a defined uptrend, as the near-term moving averages are trending below one another (the 5 EMA is below the 20 EMA), and furthermore, the stock is currently below the 200-day moving average.

A reclaim and hold of the 200-day moving average would be constructive, and then bulls would want to see the key MAs stack above one another.

Current position and plans

I own a small position in my trading account but do not own it in my investing account. I am researching this space more and will alert you all if I do decide to take a position in my investing account.

Thank you for reading and if you enjoyed this post, please leave a like and Restack.

Subscribe to the plan that best suits your needs and will see you in the next one!

Full disclosure: I am not currently L/S CRDO.

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Overview

Credo Technology Group (CRDO) delivered impressive financial results for fiscal year 2026, characterised by a 206% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.33 billion.

This performance was driven by a fundamental shift in AI infrastructure, where connectivity reliability and power efficiency have become the primary bottlenecks for scaling GPU clusters.

Credo’s vertically integrated strategy, spanning SerDes, silicon, and system-level solutions, has allowed the company to capitalise on the transition from compute-constrained to connectivity-constrained data centre architectures.

By positioning itself as a foundational network architecture partner, Credo has successfully scaled its business while maintaining strong margins and operational discipline.

Fourth Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $437.0 million grew by 7.4% quarter over quarter and 157.0% year over year. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.335 billion,

• Margins: GAAP gross margin of 68.2% and non-GAAP gross margin of 68.3%

• Operating Expenses: GAAP operating expenses of $142.2 million and non-GAAP operating expenses of $81.7 million

• Net Income:

  • GAAP net income of $169.1 million and non-GAAP net income of $226.7 million

  • GAAP diluted net income per share of $0.88 and non-GAAP diluted net income per share of $1.16

• Cash Position: Ending cash and short-term investment balance of $1.4 billion, supported by record quarterly operating cash flow of $182.2 million

Financial Guidance and Outlook

• For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Credo expects revenue between $465 million and $475 million, with non-GAAP gross margins remaining in the 67%-69% range.

• For the full fiscal year 2027, the company anticipates more than 80% YOY revenue growth, driven by a mid-single-digit sequential growth pattern in the first half followed by a significant inflection in the second half as the optical portfolio scales.

• While operating expenses are expected to increase by approximately 50% to support R&D, the company maintains a target non-GAAP net margin of approximately 50%, demonstrating the inherent operating leverage in its business model.

Key Takeaways

• Strategic Inflection in Optics:

  • Fiscal 2027 should be an inflection point for the optical business, with the company expecting over $600 million in total revenue from this segment.

  • This growth is supported by three pillars: optical DSPs, silicon photonics (PICs) from the recently acquired DustPhotonics, and the ZeroFlap Optics platform.

• Reliability as a Differentiator:

  • Credo has established “network reliability” as its North Star.

  • The ZeroFlap AECs and optics are specifically designed to mitigate link instability, which can cost hyperscalers millions in downtime during cluster bring-up.

• Market Expansion:

  • The company is successfully diversifying its customer base beyond the top hyperscalers into the “neo cloud” ecosystem.

  • Management estimates these neo cloud providers could eventually represent approximately 20% of total revenue.

• Future Growth Vectors:

  • The company is preparing for production ramps in fiscal 2028 for its OmniConnect family (including the “Weaver” gearbox for memory bandwidth) and next-generation AEC solutions utilizing microLED technology.

Final thoughts:

CRDO delivered a very robust set of numbers. Given that the stock had a very sharp run into the print, almost tripling from its March 31 low, some profit-taking was not totally unexpected. Overall, the thesis remains intact for CRDO.

The valuation remains rich, but if the company continues to deliver such numbers, it may quickly grow into the multiple.

I will leave you with this quote from CEO Bill Brennan:

“Fiscal 2026 marked another defining year for Credo. For the year, revenue more than tripled to $1.3 billion, and non-GAAP net income increased more than five times to $662 million. As we enter into fiscal 2027, Credo expects to achieve continued strong financial performance with our innovative and vertically integrated approach that enables customers to accelerate cluster time-to-stability, maximise GPU utilisation, improve network reliability, and reduce overall infrastructure power and operating costs.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

All current premium subscribers, monthly or annual, please DM me and I will send you the link and details on how to join the Discord and access the premium channels.

In the near future, I imagine the Discord becoming its own offering.

Kind regards,
SixSigmaCapital

Recent weeks post have had several strong performers, such as:

• ASTS: 74 to 130

• FLY: 32 to 62

• NOK: 12.4 to 16

• RBRK 60 to 78

• ORCL: 160 to 225

• CIFR: 18.5 to 25

• USAR 19 to 28

• CRCL: 109 to 130

Alert management is crucial. I suggest setting alerts on your brokerage platform for the key levels you are watching in advance (not just for these ideas but also more generally it is a good habit)

Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades. I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk; this could be 1 ATR, a violation of prior support (such as a horizontal level or key MA), or simply the daily low. The post below goes into more detail; be sure to give it a read.

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

I will include a couple of charts here highlighting recent trades to better demonstrate how to use the levels featured below.

ASTS: Entry on SMA 200 reclaim of 72, stock is now 112. The arrow shows entry point.

FLY: Entry on IPO AVWAP re-test and hold at 32, stock is now 52. The arrow shows entry point

OUST: Entry on EMA 20 re-test and hold. Stock is now 39 from 30 entry. The arrow shows entry point.

USAR: Entry on SMA 50 re-test and add through reclaim. Stock is now 28 from 19 entry. The arrow shows entry point.

Trade Ideas plus summary table below:

Tech, Optical & AI Infrastructure

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Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Also, ensure to check out the post below regarding upcoming pricing changes plus feedback from our readers:

Indices

Dow Jones advanced 0.88% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 1.2% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.97% in the last week

IWM advanced 2.17% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

• Monday, June 1

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)

  • Fed Speech (Jerome Powell)

• Tuesday, June 2

  • JOLTS Job Openings (April)

• Wednesday, June 3

  • ADP National Employment Report (May)

  • ISM Services PMI (May)

  • The Fed’s Beige Book

• Thursday, June 4

  • Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

  • Factory Orders (April)

• Friday, June 5

  • May Employment Situation Report (”Jobs Friday”)

  • Fed Quiet Period Begins

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,580.06, 7.39% above the 50SMA and 10.97% above the 200SMA.

RSI 73.53

10.52% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The SPX had a strong close to the week, closing at new highs. There were no distribution days this week.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 26,972627, 11.05% above the 50SMA and 16.29% above the 200SMA.

RSI 73.92

16.08% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The Nasdaq Composite remains strong, with an all time high close to end the week. It remains extended, currently trading 11.05% above its 50-day SMA

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $73,844.13, 4.4% below the 50SMA and 7.15% below the 200SMA.

RSI 37.78

-16.82% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a couple of weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was rejected at its 200-day moving average and now remains below all key moving averages.

As of Sunday 01:50 BST, BTC is trading above its 5EMA and 50SMA; however, it remains below the 200 day moving average. It is now also trading below the $74,000 level though, a level which I previously noted as a key area. Bulls would want to see this flipped.

EEM

Currently trades at $68.6, 9.74% above the 50SMA and 20.69% above the 200SMA

RSI 64.82

+21.98% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by more than 1000 bps. It has bounced remarkably from the late March lows.

It did lose the 21-day EMA earlier last week though has reclaimed that again. Below this, the levels to watch for pullback buys are the SMA 50 at 62.55 and then the $55/56 level (horizontal support and SMA 200). I would not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East.

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4538.94, 2.00% below the 50SMA and 3.74% above the 200SMA

RSI 44.55

5.00% YTD

Gold remains in a well defined uptrend, though it it is below the EMA 20 and SMA 50. The overhead SMA 50 has continues to serve as a strong resistance level and this week the 200 day moving average was tested, it held. I had planned to add to my gold position there but did not get the chance.

NVDA

Currently trades at $211.14, 5.91% above the 50SMA and 12.52% above the 200SMA

RSI 67.32

11.81% YTD

NVDA was featured a few weeks ago when it was trading at $208, at which time I had written that a move above 212.19 could see it trading at 240. NVDA did trade as high as 240.00 2 weeks ago Friday to complete the measured move.

Since its Q1 print, NVDA has pulled back to test the 21-day EMA, though it ultimately lost that level on Friday. Below this, the 50-day SMA at 199.35 may serve as a high risk-reward level to add.

NOW (Currently Long in Investing account at ~$94)

Currently trades at $124.37, 27.38% above the 50SMA and 12.09% below the 200SMA

RSI 73.58

-15.65% YTD

Last week I had written:

NOW has caught some investor attention recently. Insiders have been buying, and Jensen Huang has been praising the company, but it was revealed Trump personally owns this stock, accumulating it between February and March. This week, the 5-day EMA has flipped above the 20-day EMA, and the stock has reclaimed the 50-day SMA for the first time in almost a year. The stock will have to defend this level now. On the upside, I see ~125 as the first area of interest, followed by the overhead 200-day moving average.

This week we did reach $125 and in fact the stock closed the post market session at closer to $130. Next up will be the 200 day moving average at $141.

AAOI

Currently trades at $158.41, 7.05% above the 50SMA and 140.2% above the 200SMA

RSI 46.81

300.03% YTD

AAOI is a company that designs and manufactures advanced optical networking hardware. It has been a huge winner YTD, though in recent days the stock has pulled back, a pattern other optics names have also demonstrated.

It did lose its 21-day EMA recently, and the 50-day SMA may be an interesting level to watch for a pullback buy (see arrow).

Important: I will feature several other Trading ideas in the Watchlist Snapshot post, so keep a look out for that post later.

Recent weeks post (link below) have had countless positions responding to key levels and running sharply such as:

• ASTS 74 to 130

• FLY 32 to 62

• NOK 12.4 to 16

• RBRK 60 to 78

• CIFR 18 to 25

• USAR 19 to 28

• ORCL 160 to 225

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 54.4

Breadth slightly declined this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average declining from 58% to 54%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

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Below we will take a look at what SixSigmaCapital readers are saying. But before we do that, ensure to check out the post below which shows the previous time we gathered feedback from our readers:

I also recommend checking the reminder below regarding pricing and Discord changes. The monthly cost will increase by 20%, and Discord access will become exclusive to annual subscribers.

These changes will go into effect on Monday, June 1st. Note that the Founding Member option is currently closed also.

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Feedback from Our Readers

“I have been a Buy-side analyst and PM for thirty years in the U.S. My standards are high but I solidly trust SSC’s qualitative and quantitative analysis of company fundamentals and he has added components of average true range technicals to my perspective. His basic investment instincts and work ethic are both exceptional.” BM, Monthly Subscriber

“As a Founding member of the group, the biggest value has been learning how to properly manage positions right from entries and sizing to the psychology behind trading. I used to struggle with chasing moves and fomo, but now I feel calm, patient, and disciplined with zero urge to chase trends. What really stands out is how genuine and helpful SSC is at all times, always answering questions with clear rationale and creating a supportive community. The split between investing ideas and trading ideas also makes the whole process clear, structured, and incredibly valuable” MK, Founding Member

“I appreciate the approach -- methodical, sensible, and appropriate for a variety of time horizons. Trading ideas are anchored in price action and flows rather than narratives. The former drives markets on shorter horizons, and framing decisions around those is the reason for repeated success. Investment ideas are also managed methodically, and SSC's unique background means he looks at a broader range of ideas than most. The community on Discord is also a cut above the rest and a great resource for traders of any experience level.” TG, Annual Subscriber

“I have subscribed to other experts and no one comes even close to the communication with his subscribers than SixSigma performs on a daily basis. I am so impressed with his total dedication to investing and his subscribers. The level of communication is superhuman and passion for investing is evident. Also, a subscriber is really missing out if they don’t use the Discord” RT, Monthly Subscriber

“SixSigma is one of the few people I sub to that I have notifications set for. The amount of actionable information I’ve gotten as a sub has far exceeded my expectations. Man puts in the work. I genuinely value his perspective.” Manu Invests, Monthly Subscriber

“Have been a subscriber for a few months and not once second guessed it since subscribing. The stock pitches have paid for the subscription fee many many multiple over and perhaps most importantly I've learned a lot when it comes to make my own decisions in the market. Also an overall genuine and great community, as well as author.” MF, Monthly Subscriber

“Thank you so much for all the great picks. I have genuinely become a better trader by following your approach. For the first time, I’m actually keeping my trading gains instead of watching them disappear. Your philosophy of trading around a core position makes so much sense and has completely changed the way I look at the market. A lot of FinTwit influencers take huge risks chasing crazy returns, but that usually doesn’t end well. Your approach feels sustainable and gives me confidence that I can consistently make money over multiple market cycles, not just during one hot run. Definitely a must follow account.” KE, Monthly Subscriber

“I've learned a lot from SixSigma Capital. What stands out isn't just the individual trades; it's that the platform helps you build an actual process. One honest note: the terminology really benefits from someone who already understands the industry, so a bit more onboarding for newcomers would go a long way. My one wish-list item: an auto-notification, or better yet, an email, whenever A setup is posted” YH, Annual Subscriber

"I first came across Six on X. After following him, reading his Substack, and joining his community, what stood out to me most was how transparent and engaged he is with his audience. His analysis feels genuinely rational and well-considered, showing a real effort to explain his reasoning rather than just posting random takes. The logic within the group is incredibly strong, and it's filled with great, rational characters. This gives the community a professional feel that allows me to learn from others alongside Six’s guidance. I often have a lot of questions myself, and this environment is perfect for that. For those reasons, I’d highly recommend Six’s group” DB, Monthly Subscriber

“The founder of Six Sigma Capital is one of the hardest working analysts I know. He is consistently clued in to what's happening in the markets and is a master of technical analysis. He is open to constructive feedback. I am looking forward to his future trades with conviction levels included.” AG, Annual Subscriber

On SixSigmaCapital there will be no sensationalist claims of 100-baggers but rather sober, rational analysis. The subscription is for those who value good work.

For all readers a reminder that a premium subscription includes:

• Live Portfolio updates (All Buys and Sells) in Subscriber only Channels

• Favourite set-up Ideas, Market Memos plus Full archive

• Discord access for AMAs and Live Trading Account updates.

• Monthly in depth portfolio & performance updatesIf interested in the above, then consider upgrading to a paid subscription via the link below.

Subscribe now

For any issues, please DM or email me and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.

Thank you for reading, ensure to subscribe to the plan that suits and see you for the next one!

Read more

Alert management is crucial. I suggest setting alerts on your brokerage platform for the key levels you are watching in advance (not just for these ideas but also more generally it is a good habit)

Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades. I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk; this could be 1 ATR, a violation of prior support (such as a horizontal level or key MA), or simply the daily low. The post below goes into more detail; be sure to give it a read.

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

Recent weeks post have had several strong performers, such as:

• ASTS: 74 to 111

• FLY 32 to 52

• NOK: 12.4 to 16

• CRWV: 101 to 117

• CIFR: 18.5 to 23

• CRCL: 109 to 130

I will include a couple of charts here highlighting recent trades to better demonstrate how to use the levels featured below.

ASTS: Entry on SMA 200 reclaim of 72, stock is now 112. The arrow shows entry point.

FLY: Entry on IPO AVWAP re-test and hold at 32, stock is now 52. The arrow shows entry point

OUST: Entry on EMA 20 re-test and hold. Stock is now 39 from 30 entry. The arrow shows entry point.

Trade Ideas plus summary table below:

Tech & AI Infrastructure

Read more

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Also, ensure you read the free, easy-to-understand write-up on I put together with

Indices

Dow Jones advanced 2.23% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 0.95% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.37% in the last week

IWM advanced 2.69% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Tuesday, May 26

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30 AM ET)

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (8:00 AM ET)

• FHFA House Price Index (8:00 AM ET)

• CB Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET)

• 2-Year Treasury Note Auction (12:00 PM ET)

Wednesday, May 27

• MBA Mortgage Applications Index (7:00 AM ET)

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET)

• 5-Year Treasury Note Auction (1:00 PM ET)

• Federal Reserve Speeches

Thursday, May 28

• Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

• Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET)

• Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET)

• EIA Crude Oil & Natural Gas Inventories (10:30 AM / 11:00 AM ET)

• 7-Year Treasury Note Auction (1:00 PM ET)

Friday, May 29

• Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET)

• Core PCE Price Index (April) (8:30 AM ET): The main event of the week.

• Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET)

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,473.47, 6.95% above the 50SMA and 9.78% above the 200SMA.

RSI 68.14

8.97% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The SPX had a strong close to the week, though it failed to make a new high. Though given how futures are looking, we are likely to open at new highs Tuesday morning. There was one distribution day this week and two in the last six days.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 26,343.97, 10.1% above the 50SMA and 14.11% above the 200SMA.

RSI 67.59

12.87% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The Nasdaq Composite remains strong, though notably there was one distribution day and three consecutive days with selling on above-average volume. Despite this, the Nasdaq remains extended, currently trading 10.1% above its 50-day SMA

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $77,395.65, 0.59% above the 50SMA and 3.75% below the 200SMA.

RSI 48.59

-12.8% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range. However, we broke out of that consolidation recently, reaching highs of $82,900 last week.

2 weeks ago I had written:

Given the more constructive price action of late and the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing, BTC may reclaim the 200-day soon.

Whilst the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in a bipartisan 15–9 vote last week, advancing the critical cryptocurrency regulation framework to the full Senate, BTC has been rejected at the 200 day moving average each time it has tested it. Bulls would like to see this surpassed.

As of Monday at 21:00 BST, BTC is trading above its 5EMA and 50SMA; however, it remains below the 200 day moving average. It is trading comfortably above the $74,000 level though, which I previously noted as a key area.

EEM

Currently trades at $65.8, 6.84% above the 50SMA and 16.71% above the 200SMA

RSI 53.67

+17.14% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by more than 800 bps. It has bounced remarkably from the late March lows.

It did lose the 21-day EMA earlier this week though has reclaimed that again. Below this, the levels to watch for pullback buys are the SMA 50 at 61.66 and then the $55/56 level (horizontal support and SMA 200). I would not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East.

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4516.75, 3.26% below the 50SMA and 3.77% above the 200SMA

RSI 40.1

4.49% YTD

Gold remains in a well defined uptrend, though it it is below the EMA 20 and SMA 50. The overhead SMA 50 continues to serve as a strong resistance level. The 200 day moving average at 4352 below looks possible on any further weakness. I will likely be a buyer there.

NVDA

Currently trades at $215.33, 9.41% above the 50SMA and 15.14% above the 200SMA

RSI 67.32

14.03% YTD

NVDA was featured a few weeks ago when it was trading at $208 (see below), at which time I had written that a move above 212.19 could see it trading at 240. NVDA did trade as high as 240.00 in early trading last week on Friday to complete the measured move.

However, since the Q1 print, NVDA has pulled back and is now sitting at the 21-day EMA, which could serve as a support level. Below this, the 50-day SMA at 196.81 may serve as a high risk-reward level to add.

NOW (Recent Long in Investing account at ~$94)

Currently trades at $102.13, 4.09% above the 50SMA and 28.46% below the 200SMA

RSI 57.65

-30.74% YTD

NOW has caught some investor attention recently. Insiders have been buying, and Jensen Huang has been praising the company, but it was revealed Trump personally owns this stock, accumulating it between February and March.

Last week I had written:

NOW has found resistance at the descending 50 SMA every time over the last nine months (see arrows). Bulls would like to see the 5 EMA cross above the 20 EMA, then the 50 SMA flipped to support, and eventually cross above the 200-day SMA. This will take some time. A move above the 100 psych-level would also be very constructive.

This week, the 5-day EMA has flipped above the 20-day EMA, and the stock has reclaimed the 50-day SMA for the first time in almost a year. The stock will have to defend this level now. On the upside, I see ~125 as the first area of interest, followed by the overhead 200-day moving average.

ENPH

Currently trades at $64.03, 64.27% above the 50SMA and 72.92% above the 200SMA

RSI 78.27

89.72% YTD

ENPH stock has had a sharp rebound in recent days, driven by a strategic pivot into high-growth AI data centre power equipment and a short squeeze amplifying gains. The chart is starting to look more constructive. A pullback to the 10-day EMA ($51.29), which coincides with the breakout level, could offer an interesting entry spot. Conversely, a pullback to the 21-day EMA at $45.14 could also present an opportunity.

Important: I will feature several other Trading ideas in the Watchlist Snapshot post, so keep a look out for that post later.

Recent weeks post (link below) had countless positions responding to key levels and running sharply such as:

• ASTS 74 to 107

• FLY 32 to 50

• NOK 12.4 to 15.4

• CRWV 101 to 117

• CIFR 18 to 23

• CRCL 109 to 130

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 58.0

Breadth improved this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average rising from 44% to 58%.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

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