Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades. In trading, I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk. The post below goes into more detail, ensure to give it a read:

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

Last week I had highlighted USAR at 21. It is now 27 though extended from a low risk entry.

Trade Ideas below:

Read more

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

I recommend checking out the previous Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below; the next update will also be available in a few days.

Indices

Dow Jones advanced 0.42% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 0.97% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.43% in the last week

IWM advanced 0.5% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, May 4

• Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET)

Tuesday, May 5

• U.S. Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET)

• S&P Global Services PMI - Final (9:45 AM ET)

• ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET)

• JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET)

Wednesday, May 6

• ADP National Employment Report (8:15 AM ET): Tracks private-sector payroll growth.

Thursday, May 7

• Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

• Productivity and Costs - Preliminary (8:30 AM ET)

• Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET)

Friday, May 8

• Employment Situation Report / “Jobs Report” (8:30 AM ET): The week’s most critical data release, includes:

  • Non-farm Payrolls: The number of jobs added or lost in the previous month.

  • Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.

  • Average Hourly Earnings: A key metric for assessing wage-push inflation.

• Wholesale Trade (10:00 AM ET)

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,230.12, 5.98% above the 50SMA and 7.46% above the 200SMA.

RSI 71.18

5.42% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The SPX reached an all-time high close, continuing the remarkable V-shaped recovery from the March 30 lows.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 25,114.44, 9.55% above the 50SMA and 10.59% above the 200SMA.

RSI 72.5

8.09% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The Nasdaq Composite, like the SPX, ended the week with an all-time high close. It remains quite extended, currently trading 9.55% above its 50-day SMA.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $78,578.20, 8.15% above the 50SMA and 6.11% below the 200SMA.

RSI 61.73

-11.45% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range.

However, we broke out of that range and traded as high as $79,900 this week. As of Sunday at 01:20 BST, BTC is trading above all near-term moving averages and remains above the $74,000 level, which I previously noted as a key area. The 200-day moving average is also within grasp; if reclaimed, that would be very constructive. My suspicion is that, in the near term, it may serve as resistance.

EEM

Currently trades at $64.13, 7.11% above the 50SMA and 16.34% above the 200SMA

RSI 63.47

+14.03% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by close to 850 bps.

The levels to watch for pullback buys are the SMA at 59.87 and then $55.00 (horizontal support). I do not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East.

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely. It looks set to breakout to new highs.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4612.97, 4.59% below the 50SMA and 8.32% above the 200SMA

RSI 42.67

6.72% YTD

Gold remains in an uptrend, though it has started to consolidate below the overhead SMA 50, which is serving as a strong resistance level.

AMD and ARM

Currently trades at $347.81, 56.97% above the 50SMA and 68.35% above the 200SMA

RSI 88.94

+55.64% YTD

Last week about AMD I had written:

It is now trading at its highest valuation multiples in history across all metrics. This, combined with the parabolic short setup, has piqued shorts interest. A gap-up and fade may be the initial sign that AMD is due for a consolidation phase.

AMD did gap up and fade on Monday; by Tuesday morning, it had corrected more than 10% from Friday's high. However, it has bounced back remarkably to end the week at all-time highs. Not ideal for shorts who overstayed their welcome.

Since I’ve mentioned ARM over the past few weeks, I’ve included the updated chart below to close the loop. ARM was up 40% the previous week, but it pulled back about 6% this week to find support at the 10-day MA. ARM reports earnings Wednesday after the close, so I suggest managing your position ahead of that (trimming and trailing is one option)

CIFR (Long)

Currently trades at $17.04, 8.38% above the 50SMA and 18.05% above the 200SMA

RSI 50.77

5.19% YTD

CIFR broke out above the descending trendline last week, although it finished the week back below it. I’m looking for a low-volume pullback to the 50-day SMA(see arrow), where I may add to my long starter position.

UAMY

Currently trades at $12.15, 27.44% above the 50SMA and 63.06% above the 200SMA

RSI 62.46

104.89% YTD

UAMY looks to breaking out of a multi-month base. Many others in the same sector also look very constructive (MP and USAR)

I will feature several other trading ideas in the Watchlist Snapshot post, so keep a look out for that. Last weeks post is below:

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 54.8

Readings below 10 tend to be fantastic buying opportunities. We did get to 20 at the recent pico low on the SPX.

You will note that whilst the SPX closed at the highs, breadth is deteriorating.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Read more

TLDR: I am doing nothing, neither selling nor adding intra-hours or after-hours. My plan is to hold and build these positions over the long term.

Alphabet ($GOOGL)

• The Plan: Holding for the long term (LT); currently in “house shares.”

• Implied Move: +/- 5.67%

• Analysis: This stock is fairly valued going into earnings, but that isn’t a reason to exit, especially since I have trimmed plenty already. Last quarter was stellar, and the Street expects the same high performance this time around.

Amazon ($AMZN)

• The Plan: Holding for the LT; currently in house shares.

• Implied Move: +/- 3.43%

• Analysis: The stock has had a strong run leading into the report, but I believe there is more upside given the momentum within AWS and Trainium.

• Exit Strategy: I would only sell if something drastic happens, such as AWS guidance dropping to single digits or another left-field negative event. If the price drops post-earnings, I will look to add in the low-to-mid $220s.

Meta Platforms ($META)

• The Plan: Long-term hold, though I assess this quarter-to-quarter given the cyclical nature of their business. My entry is $585.

• Implied Move: +/- 7.47%

• Analysis: META has seen a nice rebound from recent lows but has remained essentially flat since last year. It is currently finding resistance at the 200-day moving average.

• Exit Strategy: I’d only sell if Zuck steps down or if there is poor ROI on AI capex with no clear plan for improvement.

Microsoft ($MSFT)

• The Plan: Holding for the LT; average entry is $299.

• Implied Move: +/- 7.34%

• Analysis: MSFT has been a massive laggard over the last six months. I’ll be focused on the headline Azure numbers, commentary on the Productivity and Business Processes segment, and Personal Computing. I’m also looking for any colour on their OpenAI partnership.

Practical Suggestions for Your Portfolio

1. Check Implied Moves: Look at the expected move for each stock. If that move would swing your position into a loss, consider how that impacts your decision-making. If your risk management rules require it, you can always size down or exit to revisit the trade later.

2. Focus on the Commentary: While the numbers are important, the management commentary will dictate the direction of the wider AI trade. Watch how these leaders frame the “AI path forward” for the rest of 2026.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

On April 13, I suggested that it might be prudent to sell covered calls against NBIS to collect the elevated premiums.

The specific setups I suggested considering were:

• ‘Sell the June 18 $200 strike to collect $1,050 now’

• ‘Sell the May 15 $190 strike to collect $720’

The June 18 $200 strikes are now trading at $7.55 (down roughly 30%) and will likely trade even lower tomorrow if NBIS remains flat or trends downward.

Meanwhile, the May 15 $190 strikes are trading at $3.25, a decline of approximately 55%.

My recommendation is to either buy-to-close both positions to realise these handy profits, or at least close the May contracts if letting the June ones run, with the intent to close those for a larger gain down the line. Hopefully you benefited from this one!

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

I recommend checking out the latest Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:

Indices

Dow Jones declined 0.37% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 0.7% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.66% in the last week

IWM advanced 0.68% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, April 27

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (9:30 AM ET)

• Treasury Auctions

Tuesday, April 28

• FOMC Meeting – Day 1

• Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET)

• Housing Vacancies & Homeownership (10:00 AM ET)

Wednesday, April 29

• Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET): The headline event.

• Fed Press Conference (2:30 PM ET)

• Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all report after the market close.

Thursday, April 30

• Q1 2026 GDP - Advance Estimate (8:30 AM ET)

• PCE Price Index - March (8:30 AM ET)

• Employment Cost Index - Q1 (8:30 AM ET)

• Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

Friday, May 1

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET)

• Market Holiday Note: U.S. markets are open though many global exchanges (Europe, UK, China) will be closed for Labor Day/May Day, which may result in lower liquidity during the morning session

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,165.08, 5.54% above the 50SMA and 6.85% above the 200SMA.

RSI 70.08

4.47% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 2

The SPX reached an all-time high close, continuing the remarkable V-shaped recovery from the March 30 lows.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 24,836.6, 9.39% above the 50SMA and 9.88% above the 200SMA.

RSI 72.5

6.89% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 1

The Nasdaq Composite finally snapped its streak of 13 consecutive weeks starting with two red days. However, like the SPX, it ended the week with an all-time high close. It remains quite extended, currently trading 9.39% above its 50-day SMA.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $77,422.27 8.51% above the 50SMA and 9% below the 200SMA.

RSI 62.14

-12.7% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range.

However, we broke out of that range and traded as high as $79,900 this week. As of Saturday at 21:40 BST, BTC is trading above all near-term moving averages and remains above the $74,000 level, which I previously noted as a key area. Bulls want to see that level flipped into firm support now.

EEM

Currently trades at $63.74, 6.9% above the 50SMA and 16.46% above the 200SMA

RSI 64.06

+13.34% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by close to 900 bps.

The levels to watch for pullback buys are the SMA at 59.63 and then $55.00 (horizontal support). I do not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East.

I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4709.27, 3.3% below the 50SMA and 11.42% above the 200SMA

RSI 46.39

8.95% YTD

Gold remains in an uptrend, though it has started to consolidate below the overhead SMA 50, which is serving as a strong resistance level.

AMD

Currently trades at $347.81, 56.97% above the 50SMA and 68.35% above the 200SMA

RSI 88.94

+55.64% YTD

Last week about AMD I had written:

It remains overbought, but the strength in AMD and the CPU space is evident.

Instead of pulling back or resting, AMD continued to rally, gaining 24% on the week, a truly historic move!

On a side note, it is now trading at its highest valuation multiples in history across all metrics. This, combined with the parabolic short setup, has piqued shorts interest. A gap-up and fade may be the initial sign that AMD is due for a consolidation phase.

Since I mentioned ARM last week, I have included the updated chart below to complete the circle. Regarding last week’s setup, I noted that it ‘has a very bullish structure, though it is yet to break out to all-time highs’.

Well it ended up breaking out and was up >40% on the week. This was one we caught thankfully!

CIFR

Currently trades at $18.2, 16.91% above the 50SMA and 28.62% above the 200SMA

RSI 57.33

12.35% YTD

CIFR broke out above the descending trend-line last week; although it finished the week in the red, it successfully held the 10-day EMA as support. I’m looking for a low-volume pullback to the trend-line, which currently coincides with the 21EMA, where I may initiate a long position.

It remains on my watchlist as one of my favourite data centre plays.

NVDA

Currently trades at $208.27, 12.57% above the 50SMA and 13.91% above the 200SMA

RSI 57.33

10.29% YTD

NVDA posted an all-time high close, though it has yet to surpass the intraday all-time high of $212.19 reached in late October. This breakout has been more than six months in the making. The measured move from the previous base is approximately 28 points, which could project NVDA toward $240 per share.

I have featured several other trading ideas in this post also if interested:

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 52

Readings below 10 tend to be fantastic buying opportunities. We did get to 20 at the recent pico low on the SPX.

You will note that whilst the SPX closed at the highs, breadth is deteriorating.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Read more

Furthermore, please ensure you set stop losses when entering any trades. In trading, I always recommend a strict stop-loss strategy to manage risk. The post below goes into more detail, ensure to give it a read:

As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on Substack and Discord).

Trade Ideas below:

Read more

We previously looked at COIN and ORCL, both of which saw double-digit percentage gains in a single session. Now, we will focus on RKLB and ARM, the other two featured stocks. Link below:

ARM: Longed at 159, it is up >48% in 8 sessions.

With ARM was patient to let the position work though would have been more fruitful to average up once it broke out at 183. However, it is now very extended

RKLB: Entered at 72 and exited for the 23% gains after 4 sessions.

With RKLB, the concepts at play were: relative strength within its group, a confluence of MAs, and tight price action prior to entry. It was also a thematic pick. The reason to exit at 89 was that I saw resistance at the 90 level hence taking profits felt like the right move. Though the stock did go to 92 the day after, it has now retraced to $79.

I would recommend taking profits and moving stops up as you see fit with these positions.

Subscribe now

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Lilly's obesity pill records modest second week as battle with Novo intensifies

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Prescription Data Comparison:

Foundayo: Weekly prescriptions grew from 1,390 at launch to 3,707 by April 17. *2nd week)

Wegovy Pill: Significantly outpaced Foundayo, jumping from 3,071 in its first four days to , 18,410 by its second week.

This infographic by Kontra Invest also suggests that NVO is winning the volume battle currently.

Oral Wegovy has clearly been one of the most successful launches of all time. However, it will be interesting to see how this shows up in the numbers of each of these companies because Eli Lilly has continued to impress, whereas Novo has underwhelmed of late.

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Firstly, congrats to those who took the trade; being up 100% is no small feat! The earnings were fantastic and so was the guide.

Regarding my own position, I bought the day after the pitch at $41 as per my logs; however, I ended up selling at around $50/share in early February. So, while I did capture some of the move, I definitely left a lot of money on the table. In the CPU space, I am still in ARM which I shared recently at $159, now around 220.

How to manage the position? Not financial advice, but generally, if you feel a position is extended, trimming and trailing is the way to go.

INTC Trade Idea Jan 27:

”Below are some thoughts on a potentially interesting trade set-up that is forming.

Intel (INTC) shares have plummeted nearly $20 following its Q4 earnings report. While the company delivered a beat on both revenue and EPS, the results were overshadowed by a cautious Q1 outlook. This guidance highlighted persistent supply constraints and margin pressures linked to Intel’s ongoing manufacturing transition.

Financials

Q4 Revenue: $13.7B (Beat)

Q4 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.15 (Beat)

Q1 Revenue Guidance: $11.7B – $12.7B

Non-GAAP Gross Margin: Slipped to 37.9%

Management expects available supply to trough during the current quarter, which is weighing on short-term sentiment.

Bull Case & Setup

IMO, the long-term bull thesis for Intel rests on three strategic pillars:

1. The 18A Roadmap: Reclaiming transistor leadership through the 1.8nm node, representing Intel’s first real chance to leapfrog competitors in process technology in a decade.

2. The De Facto “Western Foundry”: Positioning as the premier U.S.-based manufacturing alternative, reinforced by the historic 9.9% equity stake held by the U.S. Government.

3. Cyclical Tailwinds: Capitalising on the dual demand of the Server CPU refresh and the massive AI PC hardware cycle.

Despite the immediate post-earnings volatility, the “on-shoring” narrative remains a structural trend. As global demand for high-end domestic foundry capacity grows, Intel’s role as a national champion provides a unique valuation floor that few other semiconductor plays can claim.

A fundamental snapshot does not reveal INTC to be especially cheap (see below), but the bottom line is expected to grow significantly and a surprise Apple announcement could cause a material upward revision of estimates.

Technicals

From a trading perspective, tomorrow marks Day 3 post-earnings, often a turning point for institutional ‘washout’ selling (the 3-day rule). Notably the ATR has been much higher than usual at 6.86% for the last 14 days versus the 100 day average of 3.91%.

The stock is currently approaching its 50-day SMA ($40.13). It is within one ATR of the SMA 50. This level represents a potential area of interest to initiate a long, using a definitive break below the 50-day SMA as a logical stop-loss to manage risk.

I have no position yet, but I am very tempted to initiate one in my trading account should it come in a little more towards the $40 zone. Conversely, I may wait to see if it can consolidate for a short period, but given the whipsaw market we find ourselves in, it often pays to act quickly.

As always, not financial advice just a potential set-up I am watching!”

Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!

Read more

Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:

• A Look at the Indices

• Key Upcoming Economic Events

• Upcoming Earnings Reports

• Charts

• Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week

• Current Portfolio Holdings

  • Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity

• Closing Thoughts

Subscribe now

Indices

Dow Jones advanced 3.93% in the last week

S&P 500 advanced 4.82% in the last week

Nasdaq Composite advanced 7.12% in the last week

IWM advanced 5.81% in the last week

Key upcoming economic events

Monday, April 20

• Fed Speeches: Insights from Thomas Barkin and Christopher Waller

• 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auctions

Tuesday, April 21

• Retail Sales (March):

  • High-impact release of the day.

  • Markets expect a1.3% rise, signalling continued consumer resilience despite high energy costs.

• Pending Home Sales: Expected to show a modest 0.5% uptick.

• Business Inventories

• ADP Employment Change (Weekly)

Wednesday, April 22

• MBA Mortgage Applications

• EIA Crude Oil Stocks

• 20-Year Bond Auction

Thursday, April 23

• Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus: ~212K.

• S&P Global Flash PMIs:

  • Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released.

• Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index

• Warsh Testimony

Friday, April 24

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final)

• Baker Hughes Rig Count: Monitoring U.S. oil production capacity

Upcoming Earnings

Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:

Charts

SPX

Currently trades at 7,126.06, 5.27% above the 50SMA and 6.62% above the 200SMA.

RSI 73.18

3.9% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The SPX had five consecutive green days this week and made new ATHs on Thursday and Friday. A Remarkable turnaround.

COMPQ

Currently trades at 24,468.48, 8.5% above the 50SMA and 8.73% above the 200SMA.

RSI 74.91

5.31% YTD

Distribution days in the last week: 0

The Nasdaq Composite has been green for a record 13 consecutive days. It ended the week above all key moving averages, though it is 8.53% above the SMA 50, which is pretty extended.

BTC (currently Long)

Currently trades at $74,245, 5.26% above the 50SMA and 14.00% below the 200SMA.

RSI 56.62

-16.33% YTD.

Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has continued to trade primarily within the $63,000–$70,000 range.

This week, we did trade as high as $78,000, though we have pulled back a little since then. As of Monday 01:50 BST, BTC is above the EMA 20 and SMA 50, which is a positive development initially. Furthermore, BTC is trading above $74,000, which I have mentioned consistently remains an important resistance level. Bulls would want to flip that to become firm support.

EEM

Currently trades at $63.64, 7.22% above the 50SMA and 17.1% above the 200SMA

RSI 69.9

+13.16% YTD

EEM remains in a strong uptrend and continues to outperform U.S. indices comfortably year-to-date by more than 900 bps.

The levels to watch for pullback buys are the SMA at 59.35 and then $55.00 (horizontal support). I do not expect it to trade as low as $55 again unless there are significant disturbances in the Middle East. I believe EEM could be setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch it closely.

GOLD (Long Physical)

Currently trades at $4833, 1.25% below the 50SMA and 15.32% above the 200SMA

RSI 53.69

11.82% YTD

Gold remains in an uptrend, though we have started to consolidate below the overhead SMA 50, which is serving as a resistance level.

AMD

Currently trades at $278.39, 31.23% above the 50SMA and 37.51% above the 200SMA

RSI 80.2

+24.58% YTD

Last week about AMD I had written:

AMD continues to show good strength; however, since semis are very overbought right now, I would not be surprised to see some backfill and perhaps a test of the SMA 50 or even the SMA 200 again.

Instead of pulling back, in fact, AMD broke out to make new all-time highs! It remains overbought, but the strength in AMD and the CPU space is evident.

The ARM chart is also included below, which again has a very bullish structure. Though it is yet to break out to all time highs.

CIFR

Currently trades at $19.37, 27.05% above the 50SMA and 40.04% above the 200SMA

RSI 67.21

19.57% YTD

Last week about CIFR I had written:

CIFR chart is included below and it could be interesting either on a breakout above the trend-line or on pullback to find support at the moving averages.

CIFR ended up breaking out above the trend line on Monday and then flipped that to support. In hindsight, it gave at least three opportunities to buy: once on the breakout and then on the two retests. It remains on my watchlist as it is one of my favourite DC plays.

S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 61

Readings below 10 tend to be fantastic buying opportunities. We did get to 20 at the recent pico low on the SPX.

Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):

Read more

Subscribe now

In this edition of Actionable Stock Set ups myself and will be taking a look at the Investment Case for Amkor Technology (AMKR). It is the 10th entrant into the Actionable Set-ups series, this time for the Long-Term.

Layout:

Overview of Amkor Technologies

Bull and Bear Case

Management

Financials and Valuation

Chart

Current position and plans

Amkor Technology is one of the world’s largest providers of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services or ‘outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) services’

In simple terms, after a chipmaker designs and manufactures a semiconductor chip, Amkor steps in to:

1. Package the Chip: They transform the bare semiconductor die (the chip) into a finished, protected product that can be integrated into electronic devices (like phones, computers, cars, etc.). This involves advanced packaging technologies like:

   • Flip Chip Packaging (for CPUs, GPUs, and networking)

   • Wafer-Level Packaging (WLP)

   • System-in-Package (SiP) modules

   • High-Density Fan-Out (HDFO), which is critical for AI processors and high-performance computing.

2. Test the Chip: They provide comprehensive electrical and system-level testing services to ensure the packaged chips are fast, reliable, and perform to specifications.

AMKR plays a critical role in the final stage of chip manufacturing, when delicate silicon components are encased in protective and performance-enhancing housings that ensure both durability and electrical connectivity.

They deliver a broad range of advanced packaging solutions, including 2.5D/3D integration and system-in-package (SiP) technologies, which are increasingly vital for high-performance computing, artificial intelligence and next-generation mobile devices.

Strategic Partners:

Amkor works with a wide range of leading companies across the entire electronics supply chain, including the world’s largest semiconductor designers, foundries, and electronics manufacturers (OEMs).

Key partners and major clients that are frequently mentioned in their business and strategic announcements are discussed below.

Major Customers

• Apple: Apple is a major customer, particularly for advanced mobile chipset packaging. Amkor has publicly designated Apple as the “first and largest customer” for its new multi-billion dollar advanced packaging and test facility being built in Arizona. Amkor packages the Apple silicon (chips) produced at the nearby TSMC wafer fabrication plant.

• NVIDIA: As a leader in high-performance computing and AI, NVDA is a crucial partner. Amkor’s expertise in advanced packaging technologies like High-Density Fan-Out (HDFO) and 2.5D integration is essential for NVIDIA’s AI accelerators and GPUs. Jensen has highlighted the importance of Amkor’s new U.S. facility in “bringing this capability home.”

• Qualcomm: As a major supplier of mobile chipsets, Qualcomm is a key customer for Amkor’s communication segment packaging and test services

• Advanced Micro Devices: Amkor partners with AMD for advanced substrate and packaging development for its high-performance computing products.

It’s worth noting that Apple represents an estimated 30-40% of Amkor’s total revenue, highlighting both the strength of this strategic relationship and the customer concentration risk discussed in the bear case section.

Semiconductor Foundries (Partnerships)

Amkor has strategic partnerships with major foundries to provide a seamless front-to-back manufacturing chain:

• TSMC : Amkor has a close collaboration with TSMC, particularly in Arizona. TSMC will contract advanced packaging and test services from Amkor’s new facility to support customers who use TSMC’s adjacent wafer fabrication facilities. They collaborate on technologies like TSMC’s Integrated Fan-Out (InFO) and Chip on Wafer on Substrate.

• GlobalFoundries: Amkor has a strategic partnership with GlobalFoundries to establish the first at-scale back-end facility in Europe at Amkor’s Porto, Portugal site. This significantly strengthens the European semiconductor supply chain for key markets like automotive

Key Segments

Amkor serves four main end markets: Communications, Computing, Automotive & Industrial and Consumer:

• Communications: Driven by smartphone launches and the iOS ecosystem, Amkor packages high-performance mobile processors and related components for leading OEMs like Apple and Qualcomm.

• Computing: Benefiting from the surge in demand for AI and HPC, which require advanced packaging for high-density components like AI accelerators and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

• Automotive & Industrial: Providing robust and reliable solutions for automotive electronics, power management, and safety-critical systems. Partners include Infineon Technologies and other automotive/industrial players, securing the supply chain for power systems, ADAS, and safety-critical chips.

• Consumer: Covering devices like wearables and other electronics, with services used by major consumer brands including Samsung and Sony.

Structural growth trends

Trends like IoT, AI, and EV/SiC adoption are giving a real boost across all segments, driving higher demand and more valuable solutions. In particular, Amkor has carved out a strong position in the rapidly growing silicon carbide (SiC) segment, a material that represents a generational leap in semiconductor performance. SiC handles heat better, uses energy more efficiently and switches faster than traditional silicon, making it ideal for demanding applications.

The EV market is driving much of this adoption. Analysts project that over 50% of battery electric vehicles will incorporate SiC powertrains by 2027, up from around 30% today. SiC enables faster charging, longer driving ranges and improved energy efficiency, directly addressing the challenges faced by Amkor’s automotive customers.

Beyond EVs, SiC is increasingly used in solar and wind inverters, industrial power electronics and data center power supplies. While the overall SiC semiconductor market is projected to reach $10.4 billion by 2030 at a 23.8% CAGR, the EV and power electronics segment alone is expected to grow even faster, at 39% CAGR through 2026, highlighting the strong tailwinds from automotive applications.

While SiC device technology itself has become widely adopted across the industry, packaging these advanced semiconductors presents distinct technical challenges that create meaningful barriers to entry. SiC devices operate at significantly higher temperatures (often exceeding 200°C), which demands specialised materials, processes and quality systems that legacy silicon packaging facilities cannot easily replicate.

This expertise gives Amkor a significant competitive advantage. Companies strong in traditional silicon production are not necessarily prepared to transition smoothly to SiC packaging. The specialised know-how, precise manufacturing processes and quality standards create substantial switching costs, positioning Amkor as a trusted, strategic partner rather than a commodity supplier.

As one of the first OSATs to commercialise SiC packaging at scale, the company has established manufacturing expertise, strong customer relationships and a proven track record, advantages that become increasingly valuable as the technology scales.

Bull case

Amkor Technology operates at the forefront of several powerful structural growth trends in the semiconductor industry:

• Automotive:

  • Automotive sector remains a key growth driver for Amkor. Modern cars are increasingly becoming “computers on wheels,” integrating chips for safety, connectivity and energy efficiency. The automotive semiconductor market is expected to grow from $71.2 billion in 2025 to approximately $130.4 billion by 2035 (Gartner, 2025). Automotive-related revenue accounted for ~16% of Q3 2025 revenue.

  • Autonomous and assisted driving further amplify demand: the ADAS and autonomous component market is projected to expand at a 12.1% CAGR through 2033, reaching $93.7 billion (Straits Research, 2025), while McKinsey estimates the broader autonomous driving ecosystem could reach $300–$400 billion by 2035.

• Consumer/Internet of Things (IoT):

  • Connected devices are expected to reach ± 20 billion by 2025 and exceed 40 billion by 2034 (Statista, 2025), accelerating demand for compact, energy-efficient semiconductors.

  • Amkor’s capabilities in packaging sensors, connectivity chips and low-power modules, including fan-out wafer-level packaging, contribute ~14% of Q3 2025 revenue.

• Computing and high-performance computing (HPC):

  • These remain critical growth vectors, representing about 19% of Q3 2025 revenue. This segment is expected to grow more than 15% in 2025, reaching $90 billion by 2030 (IDC, 2025), fuelled by AI and data-intensive workloads. Amkor’s advanced thermal management and high-density interconnect technologies, such as 2.5D/3D packaging, support this expansion.

• Smartphones and tablets:

  • Amkor’s largest segment at 51% of Q3 2025 revenue, continues to benefit from 5G adoption, premiumisation and more powerful mobile processors. The aforementioned long-standing partnerships with OEMs like Apple, Qualcomm and TSMC provide stability.

• On-shoring via Arizona Expansion: a strategically important move

  • Amkor new advanced packaging and testing campus in Arizona, will be the first of its kind in the US. The project has backing from Apple, Nvidia, TSMC and it fits with the US government’s CHIPS for America initiative. The Arizona campus will enable high-volume, advanced packaging domestically, streamlining the supply chain for Apple silicon produced at nearby TSMC facilities and accelerating the development of AI, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and co-packaged optics solutions.

  • On Amkor’s new Arizona facility Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said “Amkor’s new Arizona facility is a defining milestone in bringing this capability home. Together, we are rebuilding the supply chain, on-shoring the AI technology stack that turns energy into intelligence and secures America’s leadership for the AI century”

  • Apple COO Sabih Khan: “Amkor’s new facility will package and test the Apple silicon produced at TSMC Arizona, just down the road. We’re proud to invest in Amkor through Apple’s American Manufacturing Program, which is a key part of our $600 billion commitment to create jobs and accelerate innovation right here in the USA”.

  • US Secretary Howard Lutnick: “President Trump’s leadership is bringing all stages of semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States. Our partnership with Amkor will bring high volume advanced packaging to the USA for the first time, supporting our leading AI industry capabilities and American innovation.”

    

• Global Footprint: While headquartered in the US, Amkor has an extensive operational base with production facilities and product development centre’s located in key electronics manufacturing regions worldwide, primarily in Asia (Korea, Japan, China, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam) and Europe.

It is not often you hear US government officials and C-suite executives of the world’s leading companies talk about a mid-cap company like this. This level of support from both industry leaders and government could create a “too important to fail” dynamic, providing meaningful downside protection and the potential for additional government support through subsidies, tax incentives, or strategic contracts.

Amkor is effectively positioning itself as a strategic national asset: the only pure-play U.S. based OSAT operating at scale.

Bear case

While the long-term growth outlook is strong, several risks remain:

• Semiconductor demand is cyclical and as capital expenditure is ramping, margins could come under increasing pressure. Bears would argue that we are in a bull cycle yet the Gross Margins and Operating Margins remain underwhelming. Gross Margins are currently in the low teens and Operating margins are 8%. Just a few years ago they were ~20% and ~15% respectively.

  

• The Arizona facility is Amkor’s first major greenfield facility in the US and execution risk shouldn’t be underestimated (looking at you, Intel). Workforce availability, permitting delays, and yield ramp-up in a new geography present real challenges. If there are delays beyond mid-2027 then budget overruns could be a material concern.

  • FCF is likely to take a material hit in upcoming years due to the rise in Capex and in fact their most recent quarter plus 3 of the last 5 have actually been FCF negative quarters.

    

• SiC packaging remains technically complex with potential yield and reliability challenges.

• Competition from in-house packaging efforts at TSMC and Samsung could limit pricing power. Furthermore, TSMC will still control the highest-margin advanced packaging.

• If ASE Technology (the largest OSAT globally) or other competitors announce their own U.S. facilities, Amkor’s competitive moat could narrow.

• Customer concentration is a risk. With Apple and Nvidia as the main anchors, any delays, smaller orders, or insourcing could hit the bull thesis.

Management

President and CEO

Giel Rutten joined Amkor in 2014 and served as Executive Vice President of Advanced Products until June 2020 after which point he has served as CEO.

He has more than 30 years of experience in the global semiconductor industry. Before joining Amkor, he served as CEO of Ledzworld, an LED technology company and served as Senior Vice President for the Business Unit Home in NXP. Previously, he joined Philips Semiconductors in 1984 and took on various key management positions in the areas of general management, marketing, operations and engineering in Europe, Asia and the United States. He holds a Master’s degree in Physics and Chemistry from the University of Nijmegen, the Netherlands.

What makes Rutten’s background particularly interesting is his Philips Semiconductors heritage. This division later became NXP Semiconductors and spun off equipment maker ASML, two of Europe’s most successful semiconductor companies. Having started in 1984, he saw firsthand the evolution from early European chip manufacturing to today’s advanced packaging era. That kind of long-term perspective across multiple technology cycles is rare.

Mr. Rutten has however, recently informed the Board of Directors of his intention to retire as President and Chief Executive Officer at the end of 2025. He will remain a member of the company’s Board of Directors. Kevin Engel, the current COO, will be succeeding Mr. Rutten as President and CEO, effective January 1, 2026.

Kevin Engel, Current Chief Operating Officer and Incoming President and CEO

Kevin Engel was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer in February 2025. Prior to this he served as Executive Vice President, Business Units. Mr. Engel joined Amkor in 2004 as part of the acquisition of Unitive Electronics and has held various management positions within Amkor US and Taiwan. Prior to joining Amkor, Mr. Engel worked in engineering at National Semiconductor and has held various positions in the semiconductor manufacturing and packaging industry for more than 27 years. Mr. Engel holds a Bachelor of Chemical Engineering from Auburn University

Ms Kim said “Kevin is an industry veteran with more than twenty years of experience with Amkor. He is uniquely qualified to lead the company when Giel retires and to continue the company’s close collaboration with leading semiconductor companies”

An internal promotion like this means they have prioritised continuity over change. The board clearly believes in the strategy and trusts Engel to deliver on Arizona and the HPC/AI opportunity.

James J. Kim (Founder and now Chairman Emeritus)

Mr. Kim founded Amkor Electronics, Inc. (AMKR predecessor) in 1968 whilst still a law student and served as its Chairman from 1970 to April 1998. Mr Kim took the company public in 1998 and served as Amkor’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from September 1997 until October 2009.

He stayed on as executive chairman of the Board until October 2024, Mr. Kim retired as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors recognised Mr. Kim’s extraordinary contributions to the company by bestowing on him the honorary title of Chairman Emeritus.

Chairman of the Board since 2024 is Susan Kim, James Kim’s daughter. She had previously served as Executive Vice Chairman since August 2020.

It’s worth nothing that the Kim family still owns around ± 7% of the company through a series of trusts. That continued ownership adds a layer of stability and helps keep the company’s strategic decisions aligned with a long-term view.

The rest of the Corporate Management Team is as below:

In our view the management team is strong and represents some of the most experienced semiconductor professionals and visionaries in the industry.

Financials and Valuation

Financials

At the time of writing, AMKR has a Market Cap of $8.09B with Cash & Inv. of $2.11B and Debt of $1.89B. AMKR is Net Cash positive, Debt to Equity ratio is 0.4 and Debt to TTM EBITDA sits at 1.7x.

TTM Performance:

Revenue TTM: $6.449.1 (B)

Gross Profit TTM: $870.7 (M)

Operating Income TTM: $416.9 (M)

Net Income TTM: $ 307.8 (M)

Q3 2025 Highlights:

• Revenues of $1.987B which represented a 6.7% increase YOY

• Operating Income of $158.9M which is up from 149.4M YOY (Q3 24)

• GAAP Net Income of $126.6M up from $105.6M in the same period.

• Cash flow from Operations $168.5M up from $168.2M YOY (Q3 24)

• Free Cash Flow of (77.9)M down from (31.3)M YOY (Q3 24)

In terms of end markets, Communications is the largest and also grew fastest sequentially, Revenue grew 67% sequentially (QOQ). The iOS ecosystem drove this increase.

Valuation:

AMKR trades at:

• 1.2x LTM EV/S and 1.1x NTM EV/S.

• 7.7x LTM EV/EBITDA, 6.5x NTM EV/EBITDA and ~6.2x FY26 EBITDA.

• 26.8x LTM PE, 22.4x NTM PE and 20.2x PE on FY26 projected numbers,.

• 35.6x P/FCF, (92)x NTM EV/FCF and (141)x FY26 projected FCF.

In our opinion, Amkor offers a compelling growth opportunity compared with many other semiconductor and packaging players. Returns are somewhat modest for a growth tech: ROE stands at 14.8% and ROIC at 12.4%, which is low for the capital invested today but should improve as the Arizona facility ramps up and volumes increase.

Free cash flow will be under pressure over the next 2–3 years due to peak capital expenditures for Arizona facility build out, but this is a temporary tradeoff for long-term structural growth. The Free Cash Flow multiples reflect the increased capital expenditures.

Chart and Technicals

Currently trades at $32.16, 15.22% above the 50SMA and 43.71% above the 200SMA.

RSI 59.38

+23.64% YTD

AMKR remains in an uptrend with all the key MA’s trending above the other. Since May AMKR has respected the 21 EMA including today as it held that level. For academic purposes AMKR did undergo a Golden Cross in late August.

For a new entry, further normal pullbacks to the EMA 21 may provide an entry. However, for more value minded individuals (where lower is better!) a pullback to the SMA 50 would be preferable.

There is a gap fill at $36.15 from 29th July 2024 which would be a logical upside level , and beyond that would be the previous high in recent years of $43.37 reached on 16th July 2024.

Current position and plans

SixSigmaCapital does not hold a position at the time of writing.

has a full position and below are his final thoughts and plans for his position. (Also ensure to subscribe to his substack if you have enjoyed this write up)

The Arizona facility changes everything for Amkor. By bringing advanced packaging to the U.S, the company is cementing its role as a key partner for top semiconductor players, positioning itself in fast-growing AI and computing markets whilst taking full advantage of the on-shoring trend in semiconductor manufacturing. This isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

Amkor has already proven its technical and commercial capabilities, but the real volume ramp will come once the Arizona facility reaches full production, keeping the story partly a “show me” one for investors. With current valuations and the strong tailwinds from both existing partners and government support, I felt confident taking a full position around $31.

Why this is a comfortable “show me” story?

• Companies like Apple, Nvidia and TSMC don’t commit to $7 billion projects lightly. Apple is even investing directly via their American Manufacturing Program.

• Structural tailwinds: SiC adoption, AI packaging and automotive electrification are decade-long shifts, not fads. Amkor has an early-mover advantage in SiC and is the only American OSAT with scale.

• Government support: The CHIPS Act funding and political support reduce execution risk. The US government wants this to succeed.

Holding period: 5 years minimum. Volume ramp in Arizona begins late 2028 / early 2029, but I see the real payoff coming in 2029-2032 as phase 2 comes online and margins expand through economies of scale.

Thank you for reading and if you enjoyed this post, please leave a like and Restack.

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Stop-Loss Orders

A stop-loss is a tool that automatically sells a security when its price reaches a predetermined level. By dictating that a security is bought or sold at market price once it hits a specific trigger, traders can effectively manage and limit risk exposure.

Unlike a stop-limit order, which may not execute if the price gaps past your limit, a stop-loss order guarantees execution when the stop price is met, provided there are active market participants.

A stop-limit order combines a stop-loss trigger with a limit order. This allows traders to control both the timing and the specific price of a trade to manage risk more precisely.

Strategic Use Cases

Long-term investors often find they do not need stop-loss orders. This is because they may prefer to endure volatility or use market downturns as buying opportunities to accumulate more shares. I also have many investments where I would no consider using a stop loss. However, stop losses do serve a vital purpose for active trading or when holding speculative positions.

Furthermore, Stop losses remove or minimise the emotion from a trade. To be effective, they must be established before a trade is even entered.

Placement Strategies

A stop-loss should be set at a logical area where the original trade thesis is no longer valid. If a specific level is broken, it signals that it is time to exit. Common technical areas include:

• Prior support levels: Previous price floors or horizontal levels of support

• Key Moving Averages: The MA one should use is the one the stock previously was respecting

• Session Lows: The low of the current or prior day.

• Average Trading Range: Placing a stop outside of 1ATR so random fluctuation does not take you out.

If these areas are violated, the support you defined no longer exists, meaning it no longer makes sense to stay in the position as price is going against you.

Another approach is to align the stop-loss with the maximum percentage of your total account you are willing to risk on a single trade, i.e. a Risk-Based Stop. For example, if your maximum risk per trade is 0.5% of your total account and you take a 10% position in a stock, a 5% downward move in that stock would trigger your stop. This ensures you adhere to your maximum loss rules.

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Managing a stop-loss
Once a trade is active and the price appreciates in your favour, you can adjust the stop-loss upward. One strategy is to move the stop to breakeven to ensure you cannot lose money on the position. A strategy I tend to employ is to sell a portion of the position into strength to cover the initial risk, move the stop-loss to the entry price, and then re-evaluate the stop level before each new market session.

Ultimately, a stop-loss is just one tool for managing risk which should also be accompanied by appropriate position sizing. Please revisit my previous notes on risk management and especially Minimising Drawdowns below:

I have also included a link to an article on stop-limit orders from Investopedia:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stop-limitorder.asp

Thank you for reading, ensure to subscribe to the plan that suits and see you for the next one!

I believe one of my positions is offering a compelling risk-reward entry right now. I am putting it on your radar as an idea.

Thankfully, it worked superbly; it held the key level and is up 20 points since then without violating the tight stop loss. Link to post below, give it a read:

I laid out the logic for the trade, the fundamental snapshot, and a clearly defined area for where to place one’s stop.

This is exactly why I incorporate technicals into my process. I hope you were able to capitalise on the move, or at the very least, gain some value from the logic behind the trade.

If you’re interested in these types of trades, feel free to follow along. For context, the long positions in my trading account heading into today’s session are listed below. (My investment account is structured quite differently)

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Thank you for reading, leave a like and see you for the next one!

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I highly recommend checking out the latest Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below if you have not done so:

Furthermore, I recommend reviewing my investment philosophy posts, which detail the topics and strategies that underpin my process: Investment Philosophy

Please note that this is not financial advice; you must conduct your own due diligence before purchasing any of the assets mentioned. As a reminder, risk management is essential; always employ appropriate position sizing and utilise stop-losses to protect your capital.

Also, at any given time I may or may not own the assets mentioned although any moves will be disclosed in real time on subscriber channels (Discord and Substack). Trades only go on the Discord.

My Current Open Trades in Trading Account:

• SNAP: $4.00 Strike ITM LEAPS (Jan 2027 Expiry).

• ARM: Current Entry at $159.07. Stop-loss at $151 or trailing with the 10-day EMA.

• IREN: Entry at $43.69. Stop is now at Breakeven (B/E) or a break of the 200-day SMA. I booked partial profits at the $47.00 and $48.23 levels yesterday.

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COIN:

ORCL: Pitched at 155 and again at low 160’s now 172

I would recommend taking profits and moving stops up as you see fit.

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Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!!

In the early hours of this morning, I was scanning charts and ended up liking four of them, which I presented as trade ideas in the subscriber chat. I am currently long on three of them in my trading account."

Check them out below:

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