Market thoughts: 24/07/2026
Have Google Earnings Spooked the Market, or Are Crude and Rates the Real Story?
At the time of writing, the major indices are all in the green, with the Dow up 0.68%, the S&P 500 up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.14%. However, given the dispersion, it may not feel that way, especially if you are in higher-beta stocks or heavily in the AI trade. I am essentially flat on the day, and my only action has been adding a little to my CELH position.
Current State of Markets:
Al-Erian summed up the current state of markets succinctly below
“It's a better day for markets across the board, as oil prices fall on news of Pakistan-driven mediation and indications that some tankers are making it through the two maritime chokepoints. What's still missing is widespread confidence in the endpoint for the US-Iran conflict”
I tend to agree, and as noted in my morning write-up (see link below): 'While rates sit at 4.7% and rising, alongside crude at 89 and a stronger USD, these headwinds will hit the usual suspects: tech (especially unprofitable tech), EM equities, precious metals, consumer discretionary, etc.' Until we see an end to the Iran war, crude pulling back, and rates stabilising, it's tough to envision market confidence returning to the levels we saw in April and May.
Link to Subscriber Chat:
Several AI leaders finding resistance at overhead moving averages
I know many of you may not be chart watchers, but I wanted to highlight an interesting observation: many prior leading growth stocks are simultaneously being rejected at their 50-day moving averages. In simple terms, when a prior level that used to act as support becomes resistance when tested from below, that is concerning. At least until it flips back to support. Below, we have charts for MU, SNDK, LITE, NBIS, and CRDO highlighting this point.
MU
SNDK
LITE
CRDO
NBIS
If you're holding these names and considering where to trim, selling into the overhead moving averages makes sense. On the flip side, if you're looking to add, waiting for the moving average to flip back to support should offer a clearer path forward.
Finviz Sector Map (as of 12:30 PM ET):
Thank you for reading and see you for the next one!