Market thoughts:
Equity Markets have enjoyed another robust month with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite putting up +2.69%, +2.54% and +4.62% performances respectively.
My perspective remains that there is enough to be concerned about with regards to the US economy and Markets over the medium term. However, despite the geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, markets have exhibited remarkable resilience. This is notable and we have continued to climb the wall of worry.
On tariffs, my belief is if they proceed as intended by the Administration this will hurt the average American and SMB. However, on the tariff front there has been progress with the announced Trade deal with Japan and the EU. A deal with China remains.
However, just yesterday Trump and Xi had their first in person meeting since 2019 to hold bilateral talks. Trump emphasised “progress on almost everything” and Xi emphasised mutual respect. The meeting resulted in a one-year framework agreement and progress on several fronts: tariffs, fentanyl, rare earth minerals and the overall stabilisation of economic ties.
The latest CPI reading we had was on October 24, covering September 2025. Notably, the report was delayed due to the government shutdown and data collection for October has been halted, it is unclear when the next CPI release will be.
Back to the report for September:
Headline CPI rose 0.3% MOM and 3% YOY, expectations were 0.4% MOM and 3.1% YOY.
Core CPI increased 0.2% MOM and 3.0% YOY, again below expectations.
There are persistent pressures from energy, food and tariffs.
The FOMC concluded its October 28–29 meeting by cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis points cut.
On inflation, Chairman Powell noted that prices have “moved up since earlier this year and remains somewhat elevated,” yet he reaffirmed the 2% target, which he described as “credible.” He stressed that a December rate cut is far from certain, despite internal differences of opinion, and added that the risk to employment remains weighted to the downside.
With regards to PCE (Fed’s preferred metric), we are due to get a reading for September, at 8:30AM this Friday on the 31st of October. Core PCE has been sticky this year often in the 2.7 to 2.9% range.
Last month, I stated that I had started to shift my portfolio slowly away from what’s been working to what I expect to work in some months from now. This has proved fruitful and I will continue to position this way. More on that later in this update.
Format for the rest of the update is as follows:
Indices Review
Key Indicators
SixSigmaCapital Swing trades Recap
SixSigmaCapital Performance: YTD and since Inception
Featured Quote
Current Positions in size order
Watchlist and Favourite set-ups over next few months
Closing Thoughts
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Indices:
S&P 500:
Currently trades at 6,822.34 (16.25% YTD)
It is 2.89% above the 50SMA. RSI is 60.11
Trading at 25.58x trailing earnings and 22.08x forward earnings (per WSJ)
Nasdaq Composite:
Currently trades at 23,581.14 (22.3% YTD)
It is 5.12% above the 50SMA. RSI is 62.03.
Trading at 33.25x trailing earnings and 27.85x forward (per WSJ)
Key Indicators:
10 Year T-Note: 4.093%. Now -10.54% YTD. It has decreased by 0.17% in the last month.
CPC (Put to Call Ratio) is subdued at 0.80. >1 can indicate Fear and >1.5 can be Extreme.
Vix: Is 16.91. That is again mostly in the lower range of where we have been in the last 6M. Note that in April we did get a >60 print. I have included a chart below showing the Vix over time and Nasdaq Comp underneath it: you can see extreme readings always have been a buying opportunity in medium term.
British Pound vs USD: 1.315 and up 6.35% YTD! $ has weakened significantly YTD but of note has strengthened ~2.19% in the last 1 month.
Fear and Greed Index currently reads 37 which is in the ‘Fear’ zone.
NAAIM Exposure Index is 90.35 still. This is higher than I expected. Note it did get into the low 30’s in April
SixSigmaCapital Swing trades in the last Month:
October has been quite an active month having partaken in a several opportunistic swing trades plus some portfolio changes (discussed further below). All trades are commons, not options.
Bought CIFR Monday 6th October and exited Thursday 9th for +50% returns.
Purchased IREN Wed 22nd October sold half on the 27th October for +25%.
Exited multi month AMD swing trade for +180% in size.
Exited swing trade in UNH from August, for +49% gains
Exited DUOL swing trade for +23% in <1 month
Exited COIN in main account for +220% gain at 400.0
Exited BTBT for +20% on October 10, swing trade.
Purchased CRWV in late September, sold 15th October for +13% at 139.5 average
Several swing trades in October with BMNR buying <51 and selling at 55, 60 and 65 respectively
Initiated a CRCL swing, currently on a loss
Performance: YTD and since Inception of SixSigmaCapital (Equities Only)
2023: +94%
2024: +61%
2025: +64.6% YTD (As of Thursday 30th of October Market close)
TWR since Inception of SixSigmaCapital is thus 414% or a 5.14x of the portfolio. The CAGR is ~76%.
TWR of S&P 500 in the same period is +81.5% or a 1.815x return.
SixSigmaCapital has achieved a +333% outperformance in that time period.
I am pleased as these returns were achieved without margin, options, or leverage, but I am not blinded by the fact that the market has been strong this year. I remain optimistic for strong future returns based on how I have positioned the portfolio.
Equity curve since switching to my current brokerage in the last few years is below:
Featured Quote:
“You don’t have to make it back the way you lost it” Warren Buffett
Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (at market close Thursday 30 October):