Slightly different to my usual style of posts but just wanted to send out some brief thoughts on how I currently size positions. It remains a work in progress.
There are 3 different categories of holdings in my portfolios I’d say: Long-term Hold, Position/Swing trades, Speculative positions.
Long-term Hold:
Long-term Holds are positions I plan to hold for >3 years. These usually get a 4% weighting or greater. Examples are GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SE, AMD. KWEB. Of note, AMZN and GOOGL are at ~13% and 11% respectively and if they ever got over-valued I would probably reduce back to a 10% weighting.
Position/Swing trades:
Position/Swing trades are positions I plan to hold for weeks to months where there is a clear thesis I expect to play out and if that was met/fair value reached I would likely sell. Conversely, they would be cut on technical weakness. These usually get a 2-3% size. Examples are: UBER, BABA, PDD, JD.L, STNE
Speculative positions:
These are speculative holdings I size very small often at around 1% unless I state otherwise when posting live updates. Usually these are momentum names where I expect to trade them for a quick cash flow trade. Recent examples are BTBT for 25% overnight yesterday, CRCL up 80% in round 1 and now ~20% in round 2 so far and BULL which I traded from 12.25 to 12.95 on Monday.
What I am working on:
In the last year or so I have had really good success with regards to swing trades: CELH, UBER, ASTS, CRCL, WING, SNOW. However, my position size was often around 3% and my returns would have been better with slightly larger position size.
So now, I am currently working on trying to size my swing trades a bit larger at 4-5% instead of 2-3%. The reason for this is so when correct they move the needle more. Of course, one has to balance this with managing risk. Therefore, having a really good entry with solid fundamental and technical support will be key.
I have been sizing UBER closer to 5% and also increasing my PAGS/STNE bet closer to 5%.
Thanks for reading. See you for the next one.
Just curious, are AMZN and GOOGL at ~13% and 11% of your entire portfolio across all accounts? or the percent of your Long term account value only? If only long-term account - what % is your long-term account of your entire portfolio?
Still holding PAGS, looks promising! I'm also near 5%. I'll consider increasing to 7% if price drops a bit more. Thanks for the insight!