Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below we will be previewing the upcoming week.
Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:
A look at the indices
Key upcoming economic events
Upcoming earnings reports
Charts
Notable portfolio changes from the previous week
Current Portfolio Holdings
If it is your first time here, check out the post below on how to navigate the SixSigmaCapital Website:
I also recommend checking the “Monthly Portfolio Update” for my thoughts on the Market plus my own Portfolio.
Indices
Dow Jones advanced 0.97% in the last week
S&P 500 advanced 1.34% in the last week
Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.52% in the last week
IWM advanced 0.29% in the last week
Key upcoming events:
Tuesday, September 16
FOMC Meeting Day 1
Industrial Production (August)
Wednesday, September 17
FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Policy Statement (7:00pm BST or 2pm ET)
Summary of Economic Projections (7:00pm BST or 2pm ET): Fed's forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment. Also, contains the dot plot.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference (7:30pm BST or 2:30pm ET)
Thursday, September 18
Housing Starts and Building Permits (August)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (September)
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, September 19
Quarterly options expiration
Clearly, the main market focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve's announcements on Wednesday evening.
Upcoming Earnings
Last week was a very quiet week with no portfolio positions reporting. Likewise, no portfolio positions reporting this week.
Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers for the upcoming week:
Charts
SPX
Sits currently at 6584.29, RSI 67.24, 3.12% above a rising 50SMA.
11.95% YTD
We had another week in which the S&P 500 made a new ATH, and 6600 was breached.
Distribution days in the last week: 0
BTC (currently Long)
Currently $115,510.34, +0.9% above the 50SMA and 12.72% above 200SMA.
23.5% YTD.
BTC has traded up a few % in the last week and has surpassed the key 112k which had flipped to resistance of late. in the last week but is up from last weeks post.
Bulls would want to see a hold above 112k whereas if BTC continues to show weakness then 100/10k is a logical re-test level to watch.
BABA (currently Long)
Currently trades at $155.06 RSI 74.31 and 25.71% above 200SMA.
+82.53%YTD
As mentioned last week the recent earnings were a boon for the stock as it rose >10% and BABA looked like a candidate for a stage 2 breakout. The mid 140’s high from earlier this year was the near term upside target to watch which we have broken above now. My realistic target IF business remains robust plus upside catalysts play out like like US-China deal is 175-180. At this level would be ~17x 2027 earnings and a PEG of <1 still.
On a personal note, I reduced my BABA position at 150 and 156. I am now only left with my core shares from December 2023 at average of $72.
HIMS (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $55.5 RSI 64.13 and 31.90% above 200SMA.
120.24% YTD
HIMS has been a stock that has treated me really well in recent years and I have made money every time I have traded this one.
As stated last week, recently repurchased at $42.00 for a trade, on the 200SMA re-test. Added through the SMA 50 re-claim but have not sold the higher trance at 54.00. Bulls would like to the see the SA 50 hold and next area of interest to take profits for me is the $64 level. No doubt this stock has benefited from some likely front running into FOMC. Short interest remains very elevated.
TSLA (No position L/S)
Currently trades at $395.94 RSI 74.84 and 19.69% above 200SMA.
+4.39% YTD
Regular readers would notice that Tesla has featured for 3 weeks in a row now given we felt Tesla was a high likelihood candidate for a breakout.
Commentary from last week was: “TSLA stock has been range for the last 4 months oscillating between 280 and 365 but now price action is starting to compress. Furthermore, the stock has shrugged off a lot of bad news such as poor earnings reports, poor delivery numbers, the unimpressive launch of its Robotaxi, and, last but not least, Elon's misgivings with the sitting U.S. president. That is notable.
I still do see TSLA testing near term resistance of 365-368 above and if that range is broken cleanly, a run to 420 could be next”
The stock has broken out and on above average volume (see arrows). This could be the start of a bigger move now that there is some clarity with Elon’s compensation plus this quarter is likely to be a strong one due to some front running. If 420 is surpassed, then 480 is in play.
I will not be participating but wish all involved well!
Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels)
Initiated DUOL at average of ~265