Preview of the Week Ahead
W/C March 9, 2026
Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below we will be previewing the upcoming week and providing a portfolio update as usual.
Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:
A look at the indices
Key upcoming economic events
Upcoming earnings reports
Charts
Notable portfolio changes from the previous week
Current Portfolio Holdings (Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity)
Closing Thoughts
I highly recommend checking out the latest Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:
Indices
Dow Jones declined 2.05% in the last week
S&P 500 declined 1.28% in the last week
Nasdaq Composite declined 0.54% in the last week
IWM declined 3.27% in the last week
Monday, March 9
NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations
Conference Board (CB) Employment Trends Index
3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions
Tuesday, March 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:
ADP Employment Change (4-Week Average)
Wednesday, March 11
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February
Real Earnings Data
10-Year Note Auction
Thursday, March 12
Producer Price Index (PPI) for February
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (January)
30-Year Bond Auction
Friday, March 13
Core PCE Price Index (January)
Personal Income and Outlays (January)
Q4 2025 GDP (Second Estimate)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary March)
Upcoming Earnings
The schedule this week is again a busy one. I have only one portfolio company reporting plus many other notable ones I will be keeping an eye on such as ORCL, TTAN and RBRK. Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers:
Charts
SPX
Currently trades at 6,740.02, 2.35% below the 50SMA and 2.39% above the 200SMA.
RSI 38.45
-1.73% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 2
There were 2 distribution days this week and the SPX remains below both the EMA 21 and SMA 50. The EMA 21 also undercut the SMA 50 recently which is not constructive to see. The last time this happened, and held, was last March.
I suspect we will re-test the 6550-6580 level soon (the Oct/Nov support and the SMA 200)
COMPQ
Currently trades at 22,387.68, 3.46% below a declining 50SMA and 1.36% below the 200SMA.
RSI 43.65
-3.65% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 3
The Nasdaq Composite had a volatile week, with 3 distribution days and remains below both the 21EMA and 50SMA. Not constructive in the slightest and downturn probability remains quite high. The SMA 200 is also within touching distance below.
BTC (currently Long)
Currently trades at $66,504.32, 9.62% below the 50SMA and 30.12% below the 200SMA.
RSI 43.51
-25% YTD.
Since testing the 200-week moving average on Thursday, February 5th, Bitcoin has traded primarily within the $63k–$70k range. Earlier this week, it broke above that range to trade as high as $74,000. However, over the last couple of days, much of that price action has been reversed, and it is now trading back at $66.5k.
We are once again in a position where significant technical work remains before the chart looks constructive. In the first instance, I would like to see the 20-day EMA held and surpassed, flipping $71k from resistance to support in the process.
AMD
Currently trades at $192.43, 11.57% below the 50SMA and 2.02% above the 200SMA.
RSI 40.3
-13.89% YTD.
AMD has been trading weakly of late, moving in tandem with other semiconductor names. It is currently approaching the 200-day SMA, which it successfully defended earlier in the week. However, if this level is broken, I believe it could retrace to fill the gap created in early October following the OpenAI news. This would put the price at approximately $170.
It is worth noting that AMD and Meta announced a multi-year strategic partnership last week valued at up to $60 billion to scale Meta’s AI infrastructure. This deal positions AMD as a primary alternative to Nvidia for high-performance AI compute.
BABA (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $130.79, 16.78% below the 50SMA and 9.87% below the 200SMA.
RSI 21.46 (lowest since March 2023 when BABA bottomed at $58)
-16.02% YTD.
I believe $BABA has been trading poorly for several key reasons:
Geopolitical Tensions: The conflict in the Middle East impacts China directly as they are major buyers of Iranian crude oil. Additionally, their LNG supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, we have seen significant outflows from Asian and Chinese equities. I expect $BABA may continue to face headwinds as long as the Israel-Iran war persists.
Earnings Uncertainty: The company had not yet announced an earnings date as expected, which has introduced unnecessary uncertainty into the tape.
Leadership Turnover: Recent management changes at Qwen, with key executives stepping down, have further dampened investor sentiment.
Last week, I noted that $BABA had returned to its 200-day SMA for the first time since July 2025. While the stock has historically held this level and responded favourably, the current geopolitical environment has changed the dynamic and in fact $BABA has lost the 200-day SMA convincingly.
For the chart to become constructive again, I want to see the $145 level reclaimed. To the downside, the AVWAP from the All-Time High, which currently sits at $121.39, remains a critical support level to watch.
CRCL
Currently trades at $101.91, 36.58% above the 50SMA
RSI 71.79
22.09% YTD (as of Friday close)
$CRCL has surged >100% over the past month, demonstrating tremendous strength despite broader market weakness. In my view, the stock is being recognised as a beneficiary of the current inflationary environment (as rate cuts are generally negative for Circle’s business model), a potential pure play on ‘agentic money’ and is being rewarded for its impressive earnings beats.
The stock is currently trading above all key moving averages. The $135 level, which represents the AVWAP from its IPO, appears to be a significant technical level that may act as resistance. While I like $CRCL, I do also have a position in COIN. A pullback to the low $80s would likely present a much more interesting entry point.
EEM
Currently trades at $57.32, 2.67% below the 50SMA and 9.07% above the 200SMA
RSI 36.87
1.92% YTD
$EEM has been outperforming massively year-to-date, but it has pulled back sharply over the last week amid the events in the Middle East. It remains in an uptrend; however, the levels to watch for pullback buys are $55 and, below that, the ascending 200-day SMA at $52.55. I suspect these levels may be tested in the coming days.
Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):
Exited HROW for +58% gains.
Exited STNE for ~43% gains.
Exited XYZ for +4% gains.
Important: To familiarise yourself with the notification process, please read the following post regarding the notification system. I have also included the link to the Live Updates thread on the Substack chat below, which is where I post all moves related to my investment account. Turn the notifications on. Note that these updates are posted simultaneously on Discord as well.
Live Updates Thread
Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis:
Cash: 19.4% (Pounds Sterling)
