Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C August 3, 2026
Situational Awareness LP Gets Forced Liquidated while Hyperscalers Rebound Just another normal week on Wall Street!
Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below, we will be previewing the upcoming week’s events and providing a portfolio update as usual.
Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:
A Look at the Indices
Key Upcoming Economic Events
Upcoming Earnings
Charts
Current Portfolio Holdings:
Sizing | Cost Basis | Timeframe | Planned Moves
Closing Thoughts (Scroll here for my full Market Commentary)
I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:
Indices
Dow Jones declined 0.1% in the last week
S&P 500 advanced 0.25% in the last week
Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.69% in the last week
IWM declined 1.13% in the last week
Key upcoming economic events
Monday, August 3
S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (July) – 9:45 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) – 10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending (June) – 10:00 AM ET
Tuesday, August 4
U.S. Trade Balance (June) – 8:30 AM ET
JOLTS Job Openings (June) – 10:00 AM ET
Factory Orders (June) – 10:00 AM ET
Wednesday, August 5
ADP National Employment Report (July) – 8:15 AM ET
S&P Global Final Services PMI (July) – 9:45 AM ET
ISM Services PMI (July) – 10:00 AM ET
Thursday, August 6
Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM ET
Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Preliminary) – 8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories (June) – 10:00 AM ET
Fed Speeches: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks (5:30 PM ET).
Friday, August 7
U.S. Non-farm Payrolls & Employment Report (July) – 8:30 AM ET
Fed Speeches: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks (10:00 AM ET).
Upcoming Earnings
Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:
Charts
SPX
Currently trades at 7,489.72, 0.24% above the 50SMA and 6.63% above the 200SMA.
RSI 52.77
9.2% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 0
The S&P 500 closed the week above the 50 day moving average for the first time in three weeks. That is constructive.
COMPQ
Currently trades at 25,373.85, 2.21% below the 50SMA and 5.73% above the 200SMA.
RSI 47.92
9.2% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 0
The Nasdaq Composite closed below its 50-day moving average for the fifth time in six weeks. While it did break below the 25,000-point horizontal support during the week, it closed above that level.
BTC (currently Long)
Currently trades at $63,014.63, 0.57% below the 50SMA and 11.62% below the 200SMA.
RSI 45.06
-28.9% YTD.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was subsequently firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average (See arrow) and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act although no further progress has been made.
As of Saturday, August 1st at 12:47 BST, BTC is trading at 63,014.63. From a technical perspective, it is below all key moving averages now and the 5/21 EMA has crossed to the downside. Bulls will want to see a moving average reclaim, and eventually a hold of the 200 SMA, in the coming weeks, given it has served as strong resistance.
EEM
Currently trades at $64.09, 3.51% below the 50SMA and 7.05% above the 200SMA
RSI 47.27
+14.55% YTD
EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD the gap has narrowed to around 530bps
For the second week, EEM closed comfortably below the 50-day moving average, though it did close above the descending 21-day EMA. It came close to retesting the 200-day on Wednesday, from which it has rebounded well.
Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the ETF, it may be due for a period of chop as those stocks have started to trade quite wide and loose due to shifting sentiments related to memory stocks.
GOLD (Long Physical)
Currently trades at $4,042.00, 3.74% below the 50SMA and 9.85% below the 200SMA
RSI 45.13
-6.49% YTD
In early June, Gold lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023 which is notable and it has not been able to come close to reclaiming it.
The 21-day moving average has persistently been a resistance point for Gold. While it was reclaimed in the middle of the week, Gold did once again close below it to close out the week. It was essentially flat on the week however,
While it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200-day at 4,478 (see arrow). I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.
SOXX
Currently trades at $504.89, 11.04% below the 50SMA and 25.43% above the 200SMA
RSI 42.66
61.13% YTD
On July 6th, SOXX printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, signaling a near-term momentum shift, and has been trending downward since.
SOXX traded lower this week, closing below the 50-day SMA, and continues to be rejected at the overhead 21-day EMA (see arrows). Bulls would like to see the horizontal support at $490 hold, followed by a reclamation of the overhead moving averages. One positive is that while the $490 horizontal level was breached during the week, it was reclaimed by Friday's close.
MU
Currently trades at $823.03 14.69% below the 50SMA and 58.91% above the 200SMA
RSI 47.14
161.08% YTD
Recently on MU I had written:
“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”
MU traded down this week and closed below its 50-day moving average for the third consecutive week. Micron again found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 21-day moving average and a decisive weekly close back above the 50-day.
Likewise, SNDK, another leading memory winner this year, has started to find resistance at the overhead 50 SMA.
LLY (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $1148.84, 0.13% above the 50SMA and 12.33% above the 200SMA
RSI 45.89
6.7% YTD
Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest mega-caps in the market.
From a technical perspective, the stock failed to break out this week (see arrows). As I wrote last week, 'The 1240 level above could be a near-term resistance point’. The stock also broke below the 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA during the week, but closed just above the 50-day SMA. Given they have earnings this week could be prudent to trim some ahead of the print.
AMZN (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $271.58, 10.12% above the 50SMA and 15.56% above the 200SMA
RSI 67.88
19.9% YTD
Amazon stock has been mostly range-bound for the last year. However, after a strong earnings print on July 30th, the stock is rallying and is within a couple of percent of its all-time high. Bulls will want to see a clean breakout; otherwise, there is a large gap down to $239 that could be filled.
XBI
Currently trades at $147.01, 1.13% above the 50SMA and 14.11% above the 200SMA
RSI 48.6
21.09% YTD
The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It had been too overbought to get long, but as I wrote, 'an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in.' In fact, it has pulled back below the 21-day moving average and is a whisker away from the 50-day SMA (see arrow).
Likewise, ARKG pulled back to test the SMA 50 (See arrow)
S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 62.4%
Breadth decreased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 62.4%.
Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):
