Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C July 27, 2026
Rising Rates and Crude Oil Weigh on AI and Tech Names.
Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below, we will be previewing the upcoming week’s events and providing a portfolio update as usual.
Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:
A Look at the Indices
Key Upcoming Economic Events
Upcoming Earnings
Charts
Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week
Current Portfolio Holdings
Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity
Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary)
I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:
Indices
Dow Jones declined 0.68% in the last week
S&P 500 declined 1.25% in the last week
Nasdaq Composite declined 3.12% in the last week
IWM declined 1.32% in the last week
Key upcoming economic events
Monday, July 27
Advance Durable Goods Orders (June)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Tuesday, July 28
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller & FHFA House Price Indexes
CB Consumer Confidence Index (July)
FOMC Meeting Day 1
Wednesday, July 29
FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Policy Statement (2:00 PM ET):
The headline event of the week.
Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 PM ET)
Thursday, July 30
Q2 Advance GDP (8:30 AM ET)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) & Core PCE (June)
Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, July 31
Employment Cost Index (ECI - Q2)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final July)
Chicago PMI (July)
Upcoming Earnings
Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:
Charts
SPX
Currently trades at 7,411.98, 0.8% below the 50SMA and 5.8% above the 200SMA.
RSI 44.86
8.07% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 1
The S&P 500 closed the week below the 50 day moving average for the second consecutive week. Caution is advised.
COMPQ
Currently trades at 24,975.82, 4.23% below the 50SMA and 4.31% above the 200SMA.
RSI 38.67
7.49% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 1
The Nasdaq Composite closed below the 50-day moving average for the fourth time in five weeks and is at risk of breaching the 25,000 horizontal support level. This upcoming week will be pivotal as major constituents like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report earnings.
BTC (currently Long)
Currently trades at $64,111.39, 1.34% above the 50SMA and 11.42% below the 200SMA.
RSI 49.22
-27.86% YTD.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act.
As of Saturday, July 25th at 13:09 BST, BTC is trading at 64,016.71. From a technical perspective, it is holding above the 50-day moving average yet firmly below the 200 SMA. The 5/21 EMA cross is holding. Bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 200 SMA in coming weeks given it has served as a strong resistance.
EEM
Currently trades at $63.33, 5.01% below the 50SMA and 6.24% above the 200SMA
RSI 41.02
+13.19% YTD
EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD the gap has narrowed to around 500bps
EEM closes the week comfortably below both the 21 and 50 day SMA’s. It seems like a re-test of the 200 day is certainly in play and to the upside bulls will want to see the SMA 50 reclaimed (see arrows)
Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the ETF, it may be due for a period of chop as those stocks have started to trade quite wide and loose due to shifting sentiments related to memory stocks.
GOLD (Long Physical)
Currently trades at $4,0502.00, 4.69% below the 50SMA and 9.61% below the 200SMA
RSI 40.71
-6.26% YTD
In early June, Gold lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023. That is notable, and it has not been able to come close to reclaiming it.
The 21-day moving average has tended to be a resistance point for Gold. While it was reclaimed in the middle of the week, Gold did close below it to close out the week. It still traded positively on the week and broke out of a descending wedge-type pattern, albeit only just (see chart).
While it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200-day at 4,478 (see arrow). I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.
SOXX
Currently trades at $527.01, 7.4% below the 50SMA and 32.69% above the 200SMA
RSI 42.78
68.19% YTD
On July 6th, SOXX printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, signaling a near-term momentum shift, and has mostly been trending down since. While SOXX traded flat this week, it closed below the 50 SMA and was rejected at the overhead 21 EMA and 50 SMA (see arrows). Bulls would like to see the horizontal support at 490 hold to the downside and then for overhead moving averages to be reclaimed.
MU
Currently trades at $920.95, 3.59% below the 50SMA and 83.5% above the 200SMA
RSI 47.14
192.14% YTD
Recently on MU I had written:
“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”
While MU traded up on the week, it closed below its 50-day moving average for the second consecutive week. Micron has also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 21-day moving average and a weekly close back above the 50-day.
Likewise, SNDK, another leading memory winner this year, has started to find resistance at the overhead 50 SMA.
LLY (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $1196.03, 5.9% above the 50SMA and 17.96% above the 200SMA
RSI 57.01
11.08% YTD
Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest mega-caps in the market.
From a technical perspective, the stock violated the 21-day EMA during the week but closes out above all key moving averages which is a positive. The 1240 level above could be a near term resistance point.
BE
Currently trades at $184.89, 31.49% below the 50SMA and 4.85% above the 200SMA
RSI 57.01
87.34% YTD
Bloom Energy (BE), a leading off-the-grid energy play, has pulled back sharply, dropping almost 50% from its recent highs. It is at an interesting juncture, testing the 200 SMA, a level it has not tested since June 2025, alongside a gap fill from the early April gap.
XBI
Currently trades at $150.48, 4.83% above the 50SMA and 17.82% above the 200SMA
RSI 48.6
23.95% YTD
The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It has been too overbought to get long but I had written “an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in”. It has pulled back to the 21 day moving average but given the bearish 5/21 cross it is possible it may correct further potentially to the SMA 50 (See arrow)
Likewise, ARKG also closed the week below EMA 21 (see arrow)
S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 65.8%
Breadth increased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 65.8%.
Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):
Exited LITE for the 1 session +15%
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Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (Investment Account) as of July 25 2026
