Preview of the Week Ahead: W/C July 20, 2026 The Semiconductor and AI Unwind
Beginning of the end for the AI trade, or just the end of the beginning?
Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below, we will be previewing the upcoming week’s events and providing a portfolio update as usual.
Format for what is covered in this weekly preview:
A Look at the Indices
Key Upcoming Economic Events
Upcoming Earnings
Charts
Notable Portfolio Changes from the Previous Week
Current Portfolio Holdings
Position size, cost basis, and commentary on each holding regarding the intended holding period and any planned activity
Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary)
I recommend checking out the most recent Monthly Portfolio and Performance Update below:
Indices
Dow Jones declined 1.14% in the last week
S&P 500 declined 1.36% in the last week
Nasdaq Composite declined 2.22% in the last week
IWM declined 0.54% in the last week
Key upcoming economic events
Monday, July 20
Conference Board (CB) Leading Economic Index (June)
Treasury Bill Auctions
Tuesday, July 21
Redbook Retail Sales Index (YoY)
API Crude Oil Stock Change
Wednesday, July 22
MBA Mortgage Applications & Rates
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Thursday, July 23
Initial Jobless Claims
Housing Market Data (New & Existing Home Sales)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)
NY Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
Friday, July 24
S&P Global Flash PMIs (July):
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
Flash Composite PMI
Upcoming Earnings
Below is the infographic by Earnings Whispers highlighting the schedule for this week:
Charts
SPX
Currently trades at 7,457.69, 0.10% below the 50SMA and 6.73% above the 200SMA.
RSI 48.34
8.47% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 2
The S&P 500 closes the week below the 50 day moving average. Caution is advised.
COMPQ
Currently trades at 25,220.24, 2.37% below the 50SMA and 6.88% above the 200SMA.
RSI 44.21
9.83% YTD
Distribution days in the last week: 2
The Nasdaq Composite closes below the 50 day for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.
BTC (currently Long)
Currently trades at $64,111.39, 0.9% above the 50SMA and 12.38% below the 200SMA.
RSI 52.57
-27.75% YTD.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the full Senate in a bipartisan 15–9 vote a few weeks ago. Yet, despite this regulatory progress, BTC was firmly rejected at its 200-day moving average and has traded down since. Interestingly, President Trump did publicly urged the Senate to pass the clarity act.
As of Saturday, July 18th at 17:16 BST, BTC is trading at 64,111.39. From a technical perspective, it is trading above the 21 and 50-day moving averages yet firmly below the 200 SMA. the 5/21 EMA cross is holding. Bulls will want to see a reclaim of the 200 SMA in time given it has served as a strong resistance.
EEM
Currently trades at $63.29, 5.42% below the 50SMA and 6.69% above the 200SMA
RSI 39.45
+13.12% YTD
EEM remains in an uptrend and whilst it continues to outperform the SPX YTD. However, the gap has narrowed to around 450bps
EEM closes the week comfortably below both the 21 and 50 day SMA’s. It seems like a re-test of the 200 day is certainly in play (see arrow).
Bigger picture, I do believe emerging markets could setting up for multi-year outperformance; hence, I continue to watch them closely. One point worth noting regarding the EEM ETF is that it may not be the best representative of emerging markets as a whole, given that TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix make up roughly 30% of the fund. Notably, these were all down significantly this week.
GOLD (Long Physical)
Currently trades at $4,016.89, 6.93% below the 50SMA and 10.3% below the 200SMA
RSI 40.71
-7.97% YTD
Gold recently lost its 200-day moving average for the first time since its bull run began in late 2023. That is notable, and it has not bee able to come close to reclaiming it.
Gold continues to be rejected at the descending 20-day EMA (see arrow) and is now serving as a clear resistance point. Whilst it is positive that the 4,000 level is holding, bulls will want to see key overhead moving averages reclaimed, starting with the near-term ones and then the 200 day at 4478. I would be tempted to add some physical if we trade down to the 3,700–3,900 range.
MU
Currently trades at $848.95, 9.06% below the 50SMA and 75.8% above the 200SMA
RSI 41.01
169.3% YTD
Last week on MU I had written:
“However, since early June, we can see that high-volume selling has started to take place alongside a bearish divergence. The stock also lost its 21-day EMA last week for the first time since mid-March, and closed below the 21-day EMA again this week. Furthermore, on Monday this week, there was a bearish 5/21 EMA cross (see arrow)—the first instance since the 25th of March”
The selling pressure on MU continued this week, with the stock closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late March. Micron has also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrows). Moving forward, bulls will want to see an initial close back above the 50-day, followed by a reclaim of the 21-day as well.
SNDK
Currently trades at $1354.82, 21.43% below the 50SMA and 73.31% above the 200SMA
RSI 38.68
392.23% YTD
Last week on SNDK I had written:
SNDK did trade down to the 50-day SMA, which it held, and closed the week above all key moving averages. In comparison, we saw above that MU was rejected at the 21-day EMA. A retest and hold of the 21-day EMA may offer a strong entry if looking to position long, or conversely, one could wait for another retest of the 50-day SMA
In the last week SNDK has in fact corrected almost 25% and now looks like a broken chart. Significant technical work needs to be done for it to look more constructive beginning with a reclaim of the EMA 21 and SMA 50. Like MU, the 21 day served as resistance (see arrow)
SOXX
Currently trades at $521.81, 7.84% below the 50SMA and 33.59% above the 200SMA
RSI 41.05
66.53% YTD
Last week, whilst the SOXX closed above the SMA 50, it printed a bearish 5/21 EMA cross, which I wrote was worth noting as a near-term momentum shift. This week, the SOXX was down ~10% and broke below the SMA 50 convincingly. It also found resistance at the 21-day moving average (see arrow). Interestingly, it bounced at $498, which was also the May 12 low.
LLY (Currently Long)
Currently trades at $1179.11, 6.3% above the 50SMA and 17.33% above the 200SMA
RSI 54.87
9.51% YTD
Eli Lilly and Co. has been one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in the world and continues to show solid execution. It also remains one of the strongest megacaps in the market.
From a technical perspective, the stock violated the 21-day EMA intra-week but closed the week above it. While this could offer a buying opportunity here, given that it came close to printing a 5/21 EMA cross, I reduced my position for a +27% gain.
XBI
Currently trades at $154.26, 8.76% above the 50SMA and 21.98% above the 200SMA
RSI 55.38
27.07% YTD
The XBI (S&P Biotech ETF) has been in a bull market since last August. It has been too overbought to get long but I had written “an orderly pullback to the 21 EMA may give a chance to get in”. This week the XBI did pull back to and hold the EMA 21 (see chart) it could be an interesting level to consider getting long it it can hold.
Likewise, ARKG also closed right at the EMA 21 (see arrow)
S&P 500 Percentage of Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average: Currently 64.6%
Breadth decreased slightly this week, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average now at 64.6%.
Notable portfolio changes in previous week (all updated live in subscriber channels):
